The effect of contraception on fertility: Is sub-Saharan Africa different?

Bongaarts, John

doi:10.4054/demres.2017.37.6

Cited by 43 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…Our results on the importance of contraceptive prevalence are in line with the imputed reductions based on contraceptive prevalence in applications of the demographic determinants framework (Bongaarts and Potter 1983;Bongaarts 2015). The difference is that we are estimating the effect instead of imputing it, a similar approach to Bongaarts (2017). In that paper it is argued, based on fixed-effects regressions, that the impact of contraceptive prevalence on fertility is not different in sub-Saharan Africa to other regions.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 77%

“…Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) provide the main source of information for comparative work on adolescent contraceptive use since the 1980s (Kothari et al 2012;WHO 2016;Bongaarts 2017). We use aggregate information from DHS surveys carried out in developing countries between 1986 and 2015 and contained in the STATcompiler database (DHS Program 2015).…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Standard applications of the framework take as inputs contraceptive prevalence and the contraceptive method mix, and based on published average rates of contraceptive failure impute a reduction factor of fertility due to contraception at the population or the age-specific level. Bongaarts (2017) provides an alternative method based on estimating empirically the reduction in fertility due to changes in contraceptive prevalence using fixed-effects panel regression. We follow a similar empirical approach while focusing on adolescent fertility and separating adolescents according to marital status: Earlier formulations of the proximate determinants are based on married women only.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Adolescent contraceptive use and its effects on fertility

Sánchez-Páez¹,

Ortega²

2018

DemRes

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 77%

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Adolescent contraceptive use and its effects on fertility

Sánchez-Páez¹,

Ortega²

2018

DemRes

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“…We therefore avoid statistical testing and multivariate statistical modeling, instead using simple correlation, regression and graphical analysis (e.g. [52]) for generating hypotheses and identifying factors of likely importance for causal analyses of TFR (see also [21,53]). We do not analyze all countries together but group them into six Source: TFR based on [54] global regions, forming sets of geographically or otherwise related countries that share similarities, as explained below.…”

Section: Analytical Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Human fertility in relation to education, economy, religion, contraception, and family planning programs

2020

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Background: The world population is expected to increase greatly this century, aggravating current problems related to climate, health, food security, biodiversity, energy and other vital resources. Population growth depends strongly on total fertility rate (TFR), but the relative importance of factors that influence fertility needs more study. Methods: We analyze recent levels of fertility in relation to five factors: education (mean school years for females), economy (Gross Domestic Product, GDP, per capita), religiosity, contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR), and strength of family planning programs. We compare six global regions: E Europe, W Europe and related countries, Latin America and the Caribbean, the Arab States, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Asia. In total, 141 countries are included in the analysis. We estimate the strength of relationships between TFR and the five factors by correlation or regression and present the results graphically. Results: In decreasing order of strength, fertility (TFR) correlates negatively with education, CPR, and GDP per capita, and positively with religiosity. Europe deviates from other regions in several ways, e.g. TFR increases with education and decreases with religiosity in W Europe. TFR decreases with increasing strength of family planning programs in three regions, but only weakly so in a fourth, Sub-Saharan Africa (the two European regions lacked such programs). Most factors correlated with TFR are also correlated with each other. In particular, education correlates positively with GDP per capita but negatively with religiosity, which is also negatively related to contraception and GDP per capita. Conclusions: These results help identify factors of likely importance for TFR in global regions and countries. More work is needed to establish causality and relative importance of the factors. Our novel quantitative analysis of TFR suggests that religiosity may counteract the ongoing decline of fertility in some regions and countries.

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“…First the impact of the official fertility regulation efforts should be analysed in terms of the fertility of currently married reproductive age women in terms of average annual number of live births per currently married woman so that more appropriate relationship between contraceptive use and fertility can be established. Bongaarts (2017) has emphasised that the relationship between contraceptive use and total fertility rate is increasingly becoming problematic. Second, the contraceptive prevalence rate should be adjusted for the quality of family planning services taking into account the effectiveness of different contraceptive methods as well as method discontinuation and switching, method failure and method mix to explore the real effectiveness of contraceptive use in regulating fertility.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fertility Transition in Currently Married Reproductive Age Women in India: 1985-2017

Chaurasia¹

2020

Preprint

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This paper analyses fertility transition in currently married women in India and states during 1985 through 2017 on the basis of average annual number of live births per currently married woman of reproductive age available through the sample registration system. The analysis reveals that in recent years there has been an increase in the average annual number of live births per currently married woman of reproductive age in India and in its most of the states. The analysis also reveals that there has been an increasing concentration of average annual number of live births per currently married woman of reproductive age in the younger ages of the reproductive period which has implications for population growth as more and more growth in the coming years will be due to the momentum for growth built in the age structure of the population. It is argued that in order to mitigate the impact of the observed transition in the average annual number of live births per currently married woman of reproductive age, fertility regulation efforts in India should be directed towards the practice of family planning rather than treatment of high fertility.

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The effect of contraception on fertility: Is sub-Saharan Africa different?

Cited by 43 publications

References 12 publications

Adolescent contraceptive use and its effects on fertility

Adolescent contraceptive use and its effects on fertility

Human fertility in relation to education, economy, religion, contraception, and family planning programs

Fertility Transition in Currently Married Reproductive Age Women in India: 1985-2017

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