The effect of coupling hydrologic and hydrodynamic models on probable maximum flood estimation

Felder, Guido; Zischg, Andreas Paul; Weingartner, Rolf

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.04.052

Cited by 50 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…Laganier et al (2014), Nguyen et al (2016), and Mai and De Smedt (2017) showed that the coupled approach can adequately model flash floods and floodplain inundation. A coupled hydrologichydraulic modeling approach was recommended by Grimaldi et al (2013) for flood hazard modeling, by Felder et al (2017) for probable maximum flood risk estimation, and by Sindhu and Durga (2017) for flood damage mitigation. The potential of a coupled modeling approach to identify and predict flood prone areas in ungauged catchments was recently shown by Komi et al (2017) using the Oti River Basin (West Africa) as case study.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Challenges, Opportunities, and Pitfalls for Global Coupled Hydrologic‐Hydraulic Modeling of Floods

Grimaldi

Schumann

Shokri

et al. 2019

Water Resources Research

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Flood modeling at the regional to global scale is a key requirement for equitable emergency and land management. Coupled hydrological‐hydraulic models are at the core of flood forecasting and risk assessment models. Nevertheless, each model is subject to uncertainties from different sources (e.g., model structure, parameters, and inputs). Understanding how uncertainties propagate through the modeling cascade is essential to invest in data collection, increase flood modeling accuracy, and comprehensively communicate modeling results to end users. This study used a numerical experiment to quantify the propagation of errors when coupling hydrological and hydraulic models for multiyear flood event modeling in a large basin, with large morphological and hydrological variability. A coupled modeling chain consisting of the hydrological model Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning and the hydraulic model LISFLOOD‐FP was used for the prediction of floodplain inundation in the Murray Darling Basin (Australia), from 2006 to 2012. The impacts of discrepancies between simulated and measured flow hydrographs on the predicted inundation patterns were analyzed by moving from small upstream catchments to large lowland catchments. The numerical experiment was able to identify areas requiring tailored modeling solutions or data collection. Moreover, this study highlighted the high sensitivity of inundation volume and extent prediction to uncertainties in flood peak values and explored challenges in time‐continuous modeling. Accurate flood peak predictions, knowledge of critical morphological features, and an event‐based modeling approach were outlined as pragmatic solutions for more accurate prediction of large‐scale spatiotemporal patterns of flood dynamics, particularly in the presence of low‐accuracy elevation data.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Challenges, Opportunities, and Pitfalls for Global Coupled Hydrologic‐Hydraulic Modeling of Floods

Grimaldi

Schumann

Shokri

et al. 2019

Water Resources Research

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“…A coupled hydrologic-hydrodynamic model as presented here could bring many benefits for integrated water resources management. Firstly, it could be used to estimate flood frequency curves and probable maximum floods in scenarios with and without floodplains and reservoirs, which is fundamental to the understanding of flood risk changes (Ayalew et al 2013;Felder et al 2017;Tanaka et al 2017;Gao et al 2019;Su and Chen 2019). It also enables the evaluation of basin-scale effects of multiple reservoirs, e.g., for the assessment of coordinated operation of a cascade of reservoirs at both local and regional scales (e.g., Seibert et al (2014)), together with flood attenuation by floodplains both upstream and downstream from the dams.…”

Section: Discussion: Toward Large-scale Coupling Of Hydrodynamics Hymentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the role of reservoirs versus floodplains on large-scale river hydrodynamics

et al. 2019

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Large-scale hydrologic-hydrodynamic models are powerful tools for integrated water resources evaluation at the basin scale, especially in the context of flood hazard assessment. However, recent model developments have paid little attention to simulate reservoirs' hydrodynamics within river networks. This study presents an adaptation of the MGB model to simulate reservoirs as an internal boundary condition, enabling the explicit simulation of hydrodynamic processes along reservoirs and their interaction with upstream and downstream floodplains in large basins. A case study is carried out in the Itajaí-Açu River Basin in Brazil, which has periodic flood-related disasters and three flood control dams. The model was calibrated for the 1950-2016 period forced with daily observed precipitation. The adjustment was satisfactory, with Nash-Sutcliffe metrics between 0.54 and 0.84 for the 11 gauges analyzed and with flood frequency curves also well represented. Simulation scenarios with and without floodplains and reservoirs were performed to evaluate the relative role of these factors on flood control basin-wide through evaluation of simulated discharges, water levels and flood extent. Itajaí do Oeste tributary and Itajaí-Açu mainstem present major floodplain attenuation, while in Itajaí do Sul and Itajaí do Norte tributaries the main flood control occurs due to reservoir attenuation. Downstream from the dams, results indicated that the reservoirs reach their maximum discharge reduction capacity for 5-to 10-year floods, decreasing it for larger floods. The developed model may be very useful for operational uses as flood forecasting and coordinated reservoir operation studies, as well as to enhance the comprehension of flood dynamics at basin scale.

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“…Inundation extent was validated for all set-ups following the approach of Fewtrell et al (2008). Thereby, the hit rate H , the false alarm ratio F , and the critical success index C were determined for each inundation map with respect to observed MODIS extent.…”

Section: Model Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For instance, one can address different processes that govern at different spatial (and temporal) resolutions by nesting local high-resolution 2-D models in largescale 1-D models only where these processes are relevant. This is in contrast to other approaches aiming at combining floodplain runoff with river channel routing via predefined lateral inflows (Biancamaria et al, 2009;Felder et al, 2017;Lian et al, 2007).…”

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confidence: 91%

Evaluating the impact of model complexity on flood wave propagation and inundation extent with a hydrologic–hydrodynamic model coupling framework

Hoch

Eilander

Ikeuchi

et al. 2019

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Fluvial flood events are a major threat to people and infrastructure. Typically, flood hazard is driven by hydrologic or river routing and floodplain flow processes. Since they are often simulated by different models, coupling these models may be a viable way to increase the integration of different physical drivers of simulated inundation estimates. To facilitate coupling different models and integrating across flood hazard processes, we here present GLOFRIM 2.0, a globally applicable framework for integrated hydrologichydrodynamic modelling. We then tested the hypothesis that smart model coupling can advance inundation modelling in the Amazon and Ganges basins. By means of GLOFRIM, we coupled the global hydrologic model PCR-GLOBWB with the hydrodynamic models CaMa-Flood and LISFLOOD-FP. Results show that replacing the kinematic wave approximation of the hydrologic model with the local inertia equation of CaMa-Flood greatly enhances accuracy of peak discharge simulations as expressed by an increase in the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) from 0.48 to 0.71. Flood maps obtained with LISFLOOD-FP improved representation of observed flood extent (critical success index C = 0.46), compared to downscaled products of PCR-GLOBWB and CaMa-Flood (C = 0.30 and C = 0.25, respectively). Results confirm that model coupling can indeed be a viable way forward towards more integrated flood simulations. However, results also sug-gest that the accuracy of coupled models still largely depends on the model forcing. Hence, further efforts must be undertaken to improve the magnitude and timing of simulated runoff. In addition, flood risk is, particularly in delta areas, driven by coastal processes. A more holistic representation of flood processes in delta areas, for example by incorporating a tide and surge model, must therefore be a next development step of GLOFRIM, making even more physically robust estimates possible for adequate flood risk management practices.

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The effect of coupling hydrologic and hydrodynamic models on probable maximum flood estimation

Cited by 50 publications

References 42 publications

Challenges, Opportunities, and Pitfalls for Global Coupled Hydrologic‐Hydraulic Modeling of Floods

Challenges, Opportunities, and Pitfalls for Global Coupled Hydrologic‐Hydraulic Modeling of Floods

Modeling the role of reservoirs versus floodplains on large-scale river hydrodynamics

Evaluating the impact of model complexity on flood wave propagation and inundation extent with a hydrologic–hydrodynamic model coupling framework

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