The Effect of Demographic Changes on Road Accident Fatality Rates: Japan 1970-1980

Abstract

The effect of changes In the age dlstributlon of the Japanese population from 1970 to 1980 was lnvestlgated to determine whether they played a role In the halving of the road accldent death rate in Japan durlng that decade. This was done by applylng the 1980 agespeciflc death rates to a populatlon having the 1970 age dlstrlbutlon In percentage terms. Substantlal changes In the percentage of the population In specific age groups durlng the 1970s resulted in major, but opposlng, changes In the overall road accldent death rate. When comblned with the effect of an Increase In the percentage of the elderly In the populatlon, the overall effect of changes In the populatlon distributlon on the road accldent death rate was negligible. In the absence of other changes, the ageing of the Japanese populatlon Is Ilkety to lead to an Increase of about 10% In the overall road accident death rate by the year 2000.