The Effect of Energy Prices on Iranian Industry Stock Returns

Abstract

While previous studies have provided some evidence that energy prices have impact on stock returns across industries, to the best of our knowledge, it is surprising that no recent work is known about the Iran's emerging stock market. However, the published daily data on Tehran's industry stock indices since 2005 make such a study possible. Therefore, our study is considered very beneficial as it provides insights regarding information transmission and volatility estimation of oil and gas prices and Iranian industry equity returns. The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of oil and gas prices on Iranian industry stock returns. To this end, we analyze 35 Iranian industry indices for the period from January 2005 to March 2010. Based on the multifactor model and using time-series regressions, our findings indicate that oil prices are an important determinant of returns in the banks, credit and other financial institutions, basic metals, electric machinery and apparatus and refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel industries. The findings also suggest that gas price movements do not seem to play a role for Iranian industry stock returns except for motor vehicles and auto parts industry. Moreover, consistent with the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), the market portfolio is a significant pricing factor in most of the (studied) industry stock returns. The results of this study help domestic and potential foreign investors to understand the effect of energy price changes on Iranian industry stock returns in order to manage their portfolios effectively.

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