The effect of eviction moratoria on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2

Abstract

Massive unemployment during the COVID-19 pandemic could result in an eviction crisis in US cities. Here we model the effect of evictions on SARS-CoV-2 epidemics, simulating viral transmission within and among households in a theoretical metropolitan area. We recreate a range of urban epidemic trajectories and project the course of the epidemic under two counterfactual scenarios, one in which a strict moratorium on evictions is in place and enforced, and another in which evictions are allowed to resume at baseline or increased rates. We find, across scenarios, that evictions lead to significant increase in infections. Applying our model to Philadelphia using locally-specific parameters shows that the increase is especially profound in models that consider realistically heterogenous cities in which both evictions and contacts occur more frequently in poorer neighborhoods. Our results provide a basis to assess municipal eviction moratoriums and show that policies to stem evictions are a warranted and important component of COVID-19 control.

Eviction, Health Inequity, and the Spread of COVID-19: Housing Policy as a Primary Pandemic Mitigation Strategy

“…According to the CDC, approximately 40% of infected individuals may never show symptoms-but nonetheless may transmit the virus to others [25]. Due to the high rate of transiency among people who face eviction, eviction is likely to spread COVID-19 by exposing healthy individuals to those who are unaware they are carrying the virus or those who know they have COVID-19 but are unable to self-isolate [10].…”

“…At least two studies demonstrate the potential association between the absence and lifting of eviction moratoria and increased COVID-19 infection and mortality rates [10]. In one model, researchers were primarily concerned with the epidemiological consequences of increased crowding as a result of eviction because evicted individuals tend to "double up," thereby increasing household size and boosting opportunities for viral spread [10]. With an eviction rate of 0.25% per month (significantly less than the 2% pre-pandemic national average), the model predicted a roughly 0.6% increase in total infections [10].…”

“…In one model, researchers were primarily concerned with the epidemiological consequences of increased crowding as a result of eviction because evicted individuals tend to "double up," thereby increasing household size and boosting opportunities for viral spread [10]. With an eviction rate of 0.25% per month (significantly less than the 2% pre-pandemic national average), the model predicted a roughly 0.6% increase in total infections [10]. When applied to Philadelphia, a metro area with diverse housing stability and socioeconomic status representative of many major U.S cities, the model showed 7200 additional individuals would be infected by December 31, 2020, if eviction rates return to pre-pandemic levels [10](p10).…”

“…When applied to Philadelphia, a metro area with diverse housing stability and socioeconomic status representative of many major U.S cities, the model showed 7200 additional individuals would be infected by December 31, 2020, if eviction rates return to pre-pandemic levels [10](p10). If levels increase to 5 times pre-pandemic rates due to a backlog of cases and widespread economic duress, as some analysts predict, excess infections could reach up to 41,000 by December 31, 2020 [10](p10).…”

“…Eviction and housing displacement are associated with increased COVID-19 infection and mortality rates. [10,11] Eviction and housing instability provide a wide array of COVID-19 transmission opportunities that have had the effect of undermining mitigation strategies and stifling pandemic control efforts. Eviction immediately leads to overcrowding, doubling up, homelessness, and housing instability.…”