The Effect of Financial and Economic Growth on Tourism Development in Emerging Economies: A Study of Vietnam for the Interval 1990-2020.

Abstract

Purpose - The primary study objective is to determine the interaction between economic, financial, and tourism development in Vietnam for the 1990-2020 intervals. Design - This study is conducted through a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods using secondary data from WorldBank, Ourworldindata, and the Vietnam Bureau of Statistics. Methodology: The ARDL model is a statistically more robust approach for cointegration testing; then the ECM model was used to test for short-term effects and finally the Granger test for causality between the observed variables. Findings - Investigating the vital internal force that promotes tourism development reveals that finance and economic growth are crucially crucial during the 31-year study period. To illustrate, the economic and financial contribution to the positive change of tourism is up to 30.4% and 18.1%, respectively. Excitedly, the Granger test demonstrates a one-way causal relationship between economic growth and tourism development, tourism development, and finance development, and finance development and economic growth. In other words, it is a circle that demonstrates a consistently positive impact from tourism development to finance development, from finance development to economic growth, and finally, from economic growth to tourism development. The originality of the research - This paper highlights the role and impact level of the economic and financial sector on the tourism industry of a new Asian tiger and can be considered as the first study on Vietnam. The findings investigate how the economy functioned in the past and support policymakers in establishing future development policies, particularly in post-pandemic recovery.