The Effect of Heuristics and Biases on Real Estate Valuation and Cyclicality

Coşkun, Esra Alp

doi:10.1007/978-3-031-09450-7_8

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…In the context of other studies exploring the cyclical nature of the real estate market, it suggested that cyclicality represents a structural characteristic of the housing market. This research suggests that observed cyclical fluctuations can be further influenced by the financial system, speculative behaviour, and interventionism (Coskun, 2022). It is imperative to note the significant body of literature addressing the application of quantitative methods in real estate market analysis.…”

Section: The Origin Of Harmonic Fluctuations In the Real Estate Marketmentioning

confidence: 92%

The Identification of Seasonality in the Housing Market Using the X13-ARIMA-SEATS Model

Mach,

Dąbrowski,

Wotzka

et al. 2023

Econometrics

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Aim: In the conducted research, profiles of seasonality in the housing market were determined, which provided an opportunity to answer two fundamental questions: what is the nature of harmonic variation in the seasonality and periodicity of the studied components of the construction process? what parameters of the ARIMA model optimally describe the construction market? Methodology: In the conducted research, using the X13-ARIMA-SEATS model, seasonal decomposition was carried out in the various stages of the housing construction process. Results: The research process conducted to identify seasonal fluctuations in the housing construction market showed that harmonic fluctuation profiles can be identified on an annual basis. An analysis of seasonal fluctuations was carried out for each of the three stages of the housing construction process, while also checking how these profiles function for Poland in general, and for individual investors, and for those building apartments for sale or to rent. The study showed that the market for real estate development activity differs in its seasonal characteristics from that of individual investors. Implications and recommendations: The conclusions obtained from the research can provide support in the decision-making process, both from a macro and microeconomic perspective. Parameterisation of the occurring fluctuations, and taking them into account in the process of developing a forecast can provide decision-making rationale in the implementation of macroprudential and financial stability policies Originality/Value: A novelty is in the demonstration that the residential real estate market in Poland shows different seasonal parameters, divided into the market of individual investors and investors who build apartments for sale or rent.

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Section: The Origin Of Harmonic Fluctuations In the Real Estate Marketmentioning

confidence: 92%