The Effect of Import on Export Growth and Convergence: A Spatial Analysis in Türkiye

Abstract

Recent studies tend to scrutinize the convergence and growth patterns of various socioeconomic variables among countries or regions, as well as their per capita income. This study as a new approach examines the growth rate and convergence inclination of real per capita exports among the 81 provinces of Türkiye for the period 2004-2021. The role of imports and their subcategories (intermediate, capital, and consumer goods) is also considered in this context. The results of the non-spatial panel model show that real per capita exports converge among provinces in both absolute and conditional terms. On the other hand, while total imports as well as imports of intermediate goods and capital goods contribute to export growth and convergence of the provinces, imports of consumer goods have no effect. According to the results, spatial interaction among provinces is notable. The results do not change significantly depending on the estimates of the DSAR model (Dynamic Spatial Autoregressive Model), identified as the appropriate specification.