The effect of nitrogen-fertilizer and optimal plant population on the profitability of maize plots in the Wami River sub-basin, Tanzania: A bio-economic simulation approach

Abstract

Maize ( Zea mays L. ) is the essential staple in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Tanzania in particular; the crop accounts for over 30% of the food production, 20% of the agricultural gross domestic product (GDP) and over 75% of the cereal consumption. Maize is grown under a higher risk of failure due to the over-dependence rain-fed farming system resulting in low income and food insecurity among maize-based farmers. However, many practices, including conservation agriculture, soil and water conservation, resilient crop varieties, and soil fertility management, are suggested to increase cereal productivity in Tanzania. Improving planting density, and the use of fertilizers are the immediate options recommended by Tanzania's government. In this paper, we evaluate the economic feasibility of the improved planting density (optimized plant population) and N-fertilizer crop management practices on maize net returns in semi-arid and sub-humid agro-ecological zones in the Wami River sub-Basin, Tanzania. We introduce a bio-economic simulation model using Monte Carlo simulation procedures to evaluate the economic viability of risky crop management practices so that the decision-maker can make better management decisions. The study utilizes maize yield data sets from two biophysical cropping system models, namely the APSIM and DSSAT. A total of 83 plots for the semi-arid and 85 plots for the sub-humid agro-ecological zones consisted of this analysis. The crop management practices under study comprise the application of 40 kg N-fertilizer/ha and plant population of 3.3 plants/m 2 . The study finds that the use of improved plant population had the lowest annual net return with fertilizer application fetching the highest return. The two crop models demonstrated a zero probability of negative net returns for farms using fertilizer rates of 40 kg N/ha except for DSSAT, which observed a small probability (0.4%) in the sub-humid area. The optimized plant population presented 16.4% to 26.6% probability of negatives net returns for semi-arid and 14.6% to 30.2% probability of negative net returns for sub-humid zones. The results suggest that the application of fertilizer practices reduces the risks associated with the mean returns, but increasing the plant population has a high probability of economic failure, particularly in the sub-humid zone. Maize sub-sector in Tanzania is projected to continue experiencing a significant decrease in yields and net returns, but there is a high chance that it will be better-off if proper alternatives are employed. Similar studies are needed to explore the potential of interventions highlighted in the ACRP for better decision-making.

Profitability of Gliricidia-Maize System in Selected Dryland Areas of Dodoma Region, Tanzania

“…The theory on diffusion of innovation was relevant as Gliricidia agroforestry intercropping is a new technology that can spread within the community. Feder et al [60], Rogers [61], Kadigi et al [8], and Swamila et al [4] argue that individual farmers' adoption of improved agricultural technologies in a long-run equilibrium depends on access to full information about relative advantages. According to [45,62], a relative advantage of this technology compared to others is its short (≤5 years) and long-term (>10 years) profitability.…”

“…The sustainable productivity of field crops such as cereals and pulses in most dryland areas of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is limited by declining soil fertility and high vulnerability to weather and natural disasters [1][2][3][4]. Most cereal food crops such as maize are produced under low nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) conditions that have contributed to the yield gap of between 200% and 300% [5][6][7][8]. Additionally, maize yields are sensitive to changes in climate.…”

“…Although 75% of farmland is experiencing soil fertility degradation in Tanzania, as few as 3-13% of smallholder cereal food producers apply around 8% of the recommended amount of fertilizer per hectare [16,17]. The situation on fertilizer use is expected to be worsened by the adverse impact of COVID-19 on fertilizer prices as a result of fertilizer importation [8].…”

“…The integration of biophysical and economic models has been suggested to enhance the quantification of benefits of various agricultural technologies [45,[52][53][54][55]. Simulation models such as APSIM employ an integrated farming systems approach to evaluate food security impacts, viability or otherwise, and tradeoffs of agricultural technologies such as agroforestry [8,29,42,55,56]. Several studies [8,45,[57][58][59] used data from biophysical crop models including APSIM to assess the economic impacts of agricultural technologies.…”

Narrowing Yield Gaps and Enhancing Nitrogen Utilization for Summer Maize (Zea mays L) by Combining the Effects of Varying Nitrogen Fertilizer Input and Planting Density in DSSAT Simulations

“…reported that improved irrigation and N management practices as suggested by the DSSAT-CERES-maize model could improve maize yield and N use efficiency under Mediterranean climate conditions. Kadigi et al (2020) used DSSAT to evaluate the economic feasibility of an improved planting density (used to realize an optimized plant population) and better N-fertilizer crop management practices for increasing maize net returns in semi-arid and sub-humid agro-ecological zones in the Wami River sub-Basin in Tanzania. Finally, Banger et al (2018) used the DSSAT-CERES maize model to analyze the impact of N management on maize yield in the Midwest region of the U.S.…”