The Effect of Nomination Divisiveness on the 2008 Presidential Election

Abstract

This research examines the effect of disgruntlement among primary and caucus voters who supported U.S. presidential nomination losers-a potentially divisive nomination process. I analyze the general election voting behavior of primary and caucus voters in the 2008 presidential election to determine if differences exist between supporters of the winning nominee in each party and backers of other candidates who also sought the nomination. A multivariate analysis of the determinants of "loyal party vote" suggests that Clinton and Edwards supporters showed a significantly higher degree of defection in the general election, although this behavior did not occur among people who voted for Romney or Huckabee in their state's primary or caucus.

“Lost Our Lease”

“…Republicans who were most concerned with the economy were significantly more likely to defect and cast a ballot for Obama. Among Democrats, prioritizing the economy appears to have reinforced the standing decision, but I find evidence that Obama's divisive primary battle with Hillary Clinton may have induced some defection (see also Southwell, 2009). Consistent with issue ownership theory (Petrocik, 1996), voters who placed greater weight on noneconomic issues "owned" or successfully "leased" by their own parties were considerably more likely to stand pat.…”

The Upside of the Long Campaign

“…The only exception is research examining the relationship between primary divisiveness and general election attitudes and behavior. Most scholars who have tested the primary divisiveness hypothesis focus on the link between a competitive nomination campaign and support for the party nominee in the November election (e.g., Brandon, 2012;Henderson et al, 2010;Kenney & Rice, 1987;Southwell, 2010;Wichowsky & Niebler, 2010).…”

“…9. Polimetrix uses a sample matching methodology to produce a sample that is representative of the U.S. electorate (see Jackman & Vavreck, 2009, 2010Rivers, 2006;Vavreck & Iyengar, 2013). For information on the performance of the CCAP sample compared with population parameters, see Vavreck and Iyengar (2013).…”

The Impact of Prolonged Nomination Contests on Presidential Candidate Evaluations and General Election Vote Choice: The Case of 2008

“…Several studies have also explored the impact of the Democratic Party contest on how people voted in the general election. Southwell (2010), for example, examines whether Hillary Clinton supporters were more likely to stay home on Election Day or defect to the Republican candidate rather than cast a ballot for their preferred candidate's intraparty rival. Though Southwell notes that significant numbers of Clinton voters flipped to John McCain in November, she concludes that the nomination battle was probably not to blame 1 .…”

“…1 1 Interestingly, Southwell (2010) finds that John Edwards voters were statistically similar to Clinton voters in their tendency to support John McCain, which suggests that the consequences of prolonged primary contests do not necessarily build resentment over an extended period of time. …”