The effect of real exchange rate uncertainty on Turkey’s foreign trade: new evidences from SVAR model

Köse, Nezir; Aslan, Çağlayan

doi:10.1080/16081625.2020.1808798

Cited by 7 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…Finally, imports do not affect exports. This result contradicts the results of Köse and Aslan (2020), who find that exports respond increasingly to shocks in imports. The stationarity degrees of the variables for the sub-periods are examined with the Phillips-Perron unit root test.…”

Section: Resultscontrasting

confidence: 95%

“…Finally, imports are ineffective in both periods. The most recent study investigating the relationship between real exchange rate and exports for Turkey's economy is by Köse and Aslan (2020). The findings of this paper differ from Köse and Aslan (2020) in terms of the impact of imports on exports.…”

Section: The Role Of Exchange Rate Volatility In Turkey's Exportscontrasting

confidence: 64%

“…The most recent study investigating the relationship between real exchange rate and exports for Turkey's economy is by Köse and Aslan (2020). The findings of this paper differ from Köse and Aslan (2020) in terms of the impact of imports on exports. The study finds that, contrary to expectations, imports do not have a significant effect on exports.…”

Section: The Role Of Exchange Rate Volatility In Turkey's Exportscontrasting

confidence: 64%

“…In this study the SVAR model includes income, real exchange rate volatility, and import and export variables. Köse and Aslan's (2020) study is based on creating constraints for the SVAR model under which external income is not contemporaneously affected by shocks in other variables in the system but external income affects export shocks simultaneously. While real exchange rate volatility is not affected contemporaneously by shocks of the other variables, it has an impact on the import and export shocks.…”

Section: The Role Of Exchange Rate Volatility In Turkey's Exportsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Revisiting the role of exchange rate volatility in Turkey’s exports: Evidence from the structural VAR approach

Barış-Tüzemen

Tüzemen

2021

EKON ANAL

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The exchange rate is both an important economic variable when determining a country?s export volume and an indicator of its international competitiveness. This paper re-investigates the impact of real exchange rate volatility on Turkey?s exports using the structural vector autoregression method and monthly data from 2003:01 to 2019:12. Empirical evidence shows that real exchange rate and exchange rate volatility do not affect exports in Turkey. On the other hand, external income has had a slight effect on Turkey?s exports in the post-global-crisis period. The findings show that other factors which effect macroeconomic indicators in the Turkish economy should also be considered.

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Section: Resultscontrasting

confidence: 95%

Section: The Role Of Exchange Rate Volatility In Turkey's Exportscontrasting

confidence: 64%

Section: The Role Of Exchange Rate Volatility In Turkey's Exportscontrasting

confidence: 64%

Section: The Role Of Exchange Rate Volatility In Turkey's Exportsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Revisiting the role of exchange rate volatility in Turkey’s exports: Evidence from the structural VAR approach

Barış-Tüzemen

Tüzemen

2021

EKON ANAL

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“…Through their approach, they showed evidence that depreciation when separated from appreciation has strong influence on trade balance by asymmetric model. Köse & Aslan (2020) analyzed the connection of exchange rate uncertainty and foreign trade performance in Turkey using structural vector autoregressive models (SVAR) with the usual restrictions. They found that domestic income and import strongly influenced export above exchange rate volatility.…”

Section: Review Of Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Domestic consumption and uncertainty of exchange rate in a Monetary union: Evidence from the Euro area

Okafor¹,

Lokossou²

2021

EurJ Appl Econ

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The research seeks to uncover how real consumption reacts to real exchange rate uncertainty in the short and long run for the world's largest monetary union the Euro zone. Twelve Euro zone countries were sampled covering the period 1995Q1-2019Q4. Using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and pooled mean group (PMG), the result shows that exchange rate uncertainty significantly dampens long-run consumption while the short-run effect is mixed. In the benchmark model, a negative and significant error correction coefficient was obtained, which allows to argue that i) there is evidence of a return to the long-run equilibrium path for consumption following short run deviations and ii) the speed of adjustment to equilibrium is low, with a coefficient of ~ 4%. This suggests that, in the Euro zone, convergence to long-run equilibrium is slow, as the proportion of disequilibrium corrected in one quarter, following a shock, is about 4%, which implies it would take ~17 quarters for one half of the disequilibrium, or deviations from the long-run consumption path to become corrected.

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Do the export reactions to exchange rate and exchange rate volatility differ depending on technology intensity? New evidences from the panel SVAR analysis

Aslan,

Akpiliç

2023

Empir Econ

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The effect of real exchange rate uncertainty on Turkey’s foreign trade: new evidences from SVAR model

Cited by 7 publications

References 37 publications

Revisiting the role of exchange rate volatility in Turkey’s exports: Evidence from the structural VAR approach

Revisiting the role of exchange rate volatility in Turkey’s exports: Evidence from the structural VAR approach

Domestic consumption and uncertainty of exchange rate in a Monetary union: Evidence from the Euro area

Do the export reactions to exchange rate and exchange rate volatility differ depending on technology intensity? New evidences from the panel SVAR analysis

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