The Effect of Regional Borders when Using the Gutenberg-Richter Model, Case Study: Western Anatolia

Abstract

A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Western Anatolia is presented using the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) frequency-magnitude relation. Since the modeling is sensitive to the location of seismotectonics boundaries, to use the information content of the observed earthquake data, as a general rule the borders of the affected area are extended. In this study, the effect of the region's definition on the G-R model is debated on the Western Anatolian region, which is one of the most seismically active and rapidly deforming regions of the world throughout the ages. Calculations are carried out for two subregions and one combined region as a whole using the seismic catalog from 1900 to 2005. The data sets are determined by the region's borders with the parameters computed according to these data sets by the least-squares and maximum likelihood methods, and then future predictions are estimated via these parameters. Comparing the results with historical earthquake records, most appropriate regional borders for Western Anatolia are defined, and for this new region G-R model parameters are obtained.

Statistical behaviours of earthquake occurrences in the Central Anatolian Region of Turkey: region-time-magnitude analyses

“…There exist a large number of statistical studies as mentioned above on the spatio-temporal behaviours of earthquake occurrences for different parts of the world. Also, many researchers have applied different methods to present the region-time-magnitude variations of earthquake distributions for different parts of Turkey (e.g., Yüksel 1985;Dirik, Güncüoğlu 1996;Koçyiğit 2000;Bilim 2003;Çobanoğlu et al 2006;Polat et al 2008;Kahraman et al 2008;Öztürk et al 2008;Özmen 2015;Öztürk 2011, 2017, 2018. As sated before, the CAR has no important seismic potential in terms of occurrences of strong earthquakes in the short term.…”

“…A probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis for the western Anatolian region was carried out by using the G-R magnitude-frequency scaling law in Kahraman et al (2008). The b-value of the G-R relationship was estimated as 0.84 with the maximum likelihood approach.…”

Seismic quiescence and magnitude-frequency statistics of current earthquake activity in the Central Anatolian Region (Turkey) and its vicinity

“…Bununla birlikte, bu bölgedeki son on yıldaki depremler dikkate alındığında, deprem dağılımlarının detaylı bir istatistiksel bölgezaman analizi önemli olacaktır. Bazı araştırmacılar farklı yöntemler kullanarak OAB ve civarındaki depremlerin istatistiksel davranışlarını tanımlamaya çalışmışlar ve önemli sonuçlar elde etmişlerdir [28,29,30]. OAB'nin bazı kısımlarını kapsayan ve doğu Akdeniz bölgesini içeren bir alanda depremlerin geri dönüşüm periyodlarının ve deprem oluşum aralıklarının tahmini üzerine istatistiksel bir çalışma yapılmıştır [28].…”

“…Bu sonuçlardan görüleceği üzere, OAB ve civarındaki bazı bölgelerde orta/uzun vadede önemli bir deprem potansiyeli mevcuttur. G-R ilişkisi dikkate alınarak, Türkiye'nin Batı Anadolu Bölgesi için, olasılığa dayalı bir deprem tehlike analizi yapılmış [29]…”

A Chilean seismic regionalization through a Kohonen neural network

“…Essentially, these studies used the technique proposed by Cornell [7] and Algermissen and Perkings [8]. A more recent study was made by Martin [9], where the author applied the Gutenberg-Richter law [10] to divide Chile into a total of nine seismic regions.…”