The effect of temperature on the extrinsic incubation period and infection rate of dengue virus serotype 2 infection in Aedes albopictus

Xiao, Fang-zhen; Zhang, Yi; Deng, Yanqin; He, Si; Xie, Hui; Zhou, Xiao‐Nong; Yan-sheng, Yan

doi:10.1007/s00705-014-2051-1

Cited by 77 publications

(88 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…albopictus in the winter [4], the occurrence of dengue epidemics in Guangzhou depends highly on imported cases from surrounding endemic countries, such as Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Indonesia. Serving as a transportation hub for these countries increases the outbreak risk of Guangzhou further (Fig 1C).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Because of its warm and wet climate, as well as the close ties with dengue endemic Southeast Asian countries, Guangzhou has a high risk of local dengue transmission. The introduction of dengue virus (DENV) by imported cases is required annually for local epidemics in Guangzhou, since the dengue virus cannot disseminate to the salivary glands of Aedes albopictus when temperature is below 18°C [4] and adult mosquitoes rarely survive the winter.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The interplay of climate, intervention and imported cases as determinants of the 2014 dengue outbreak in Guangzhou

et al. 2017

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Dengue is a fast spreading mosquito-borne disease that affects more than half of the population worldwide. An unprecedented outbreak happened in Guangzhou, China in 2014, which contributed 52 percent of all dengue cases that occurred in mainland China between 1990 and 2015. Our previous analysis, based on a deterministic model, concluded that the early timing of the first imported case that triggered local transmission and the excessive rainfall thereafter were the most important determinants of the large final epidemic size in 2014. However, the deterministic model did not allow us to explore the driving force of the early local transmission. Here, we expand the model to include stochastic elements and calculate the successful invasion rate of cases that entered Guangzhou at different times under different climate and intervention scenarios. The conclusion is that the higher number of imported cases in May and June was responsible for the early outbreak instead of climate. Although the excessive rainfall in 2014 did increase the success rate, this effect was offset by the low initial water level caused by interventions in late 2013. The success rate is strongly dependent on mosquito abundance during the recovery period of the imported case, since the first step of a successful invasion is infecting at least one local mosquito. The average final epidemic size of successful invasion decreases exponentially with introduction time, which means if an imported case in early summer initiates the infection process, the final number infected can be extremely large. Therefore, dengue outbreaks occurring in Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia and Vietnam in early summer merit greater attention, since the travel volumes between Guangzhou and these countries are large. As the climate changes, destroying mosquito breeding sites in Guangzhou can mitigate the detrimental effects of the probable increase in rainfall in spring and summer.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The interplay of climate, intervention and imported cases as determinants of the 2014 dengue outbreak in Guangzhou

et al. 2017

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“…Our findings show that this association is mainly related to direct effects of temperature on dengue transmission rate. Mechanisms for such direct effects include, for example, temperature effects on the biting rate of mosquitoes (18), incubation period of pathogens (19), and human exposure to mosquitoes (e.g., by influencing the time spent outdoors or with open windows). In contrast, GAM results show no significant association of the temperature variables considered with mosquito population dynamics.…”

Section: Significancementioning

confidence: 99%

Climate variation drives dengue dynamics

Stige

Chan

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

194

156

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Dengue, a viral infection transmitted between people by mosquitoes, is one of the most rapidly spreading diseases in the world. Here, we report the analyses covering 11 y (2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015) from the city of Guangzhou in southern China. Using the first 8 y of data to develop an ecologically based model for the dengue system, we reliably predict the following 3 y of dengue dynamics-years with exceptionally extensive dengue outbreaks. We demonstrate that climate conditions, through the effects of rainfall and temperature on mosquito abundance and dengue transmission rate, play key roles in explaining the temporal dynamics of dengue incidence in the human population. Our study thus contributes to a better understanding of dengue dynamics and provides a predictive tool for preventive dengue reduction strategies.D engue is one of the most rapidly spreading diseases in the world (1), including within the Guangdong province of southern China (2). During the last 50 y, the incidence of dengue has increased 30-fold with increasing geographic expansion to new countries (1). In 2010, an estimated 390 million dengue infections occurred, of which around 96 million showed symptoms (3). Dengue outbreaks in China were previously thought to be imported and initiated by people traveling to China from dengue-endemic areas elsewhere (4); however, recent studies suggest that dengue may now be endemic to China as well (2). The epidemiological triangle of both dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever, which is the more serious form of dengue, includes hosts (humans), pathogens (one or more of five dengue virus serotypes) (5), and mosquito vectors (Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti) with their ecological interactions (6). The dengue outbreaks are qualitatively known to be strongly influenced by temperature (7), humidity, rainfall, and socioeconomic factors like urbanization (8). However, a full understanding of the quantitative nature of such effects is largely lacking. With this paper, we provide such a quantitative understanding of dengue dynamics.In 2014, an extensive dengue outbreak hit China, with 47,127 dengue cases diagnosed, a new record since 1986 (9). Since the 1990s, dengue epidemics have gradually spread from Guangdong, Hainan, and Guangxi provinces (9). We present here a time series analysis of dengue dynamics, using dengue surveillance data for the years 2005−2015 from Guangzhou, the largest city in Guangdong and the city with the most dengue cases in China. We split the main analysis by using the first 8 y to develop a model, and the three remaining years to test that model, as these latter years encompass exceptionally extensive dengue outbreaks.Monthly human dengue incidence data (number of diagnosed cases) were obtained from the China National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System (10) (Fig. 1). Monthly surveillance data of A. albopictus density, the only dengue vector species in Guangzhou, were obtained from local Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (11) (Metho...

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“…(a) climatic (and environmental: temperature, rainfall and humidity) factors as well as human behaviors (urbanization and globalization) and (b) overall lack of vector control measures and absence of anti-dengue antiviral as well as absence or limitation in usage of licensed dengue (only dengvaxia: CYD-TDV) vaccine [6][7][8][9]. DHF was first reported in Calcutta (Kolkata), West Bengal in 1963 and 1964 [10,11], and due to the co-circulation of all four DENV (DENV1, DENV2, DENV3 and DENV4) serotypes this region has been designated as hyper-endemic [12].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several dengue episodes hit Kolkata from time to time [13,14] The extrinsic incubation period (EIP: Time span for viral incubation between the ingestion of viremic blood from the human, by a mosquito vector, and detection of DENVs in the mosquito salivary glands for transmission to a new susceptible host) might explain the transmission dynamics of DENVs, and hence the dengue-preparedness for proper management [2]. It has been shown experimentally that at temperature <18°C, DENVs are not detected in the vector's (A. albopictus) salivary glands, while at 21°C, DENV antigens are detectable, and therefore, reports are aptly available on the decrease of EIP from 9 days (at 26°C) to 5 days (at 30°C), and 8 days to 15 days, respectively at 30.8°C and 23.4°C, suggesting the gradual increase of DEN incidences with increased temperature, peaking at ~ 32°C prior to declining at higher temperatures [2,6,7]. Watts et al [19] demonstrated in Ae.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Preparedness for Global Dengue Resurgence: An Urgent Need

Shyamapada¹

2018

Transl Biomed

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CommentaryDengue virus (DENV: Genus Flavivirus; family Flaviviridae), which is vectored by female Aedes aegypti (in endemic regions principally in urban areas) as well as female Aedes albopictus (mostly in rural areas) mosquitoes, cause dengue in humans (with the infection of its all four serotypes [1-3]: DENV1, DENV2, DENV3 and DENV4) that arrays from self-limiting mild feverish illness: DF (dengue fever), to severe life-threatening forms, DHF (dengue hemorrhagic fever) and DSS (dengue shock syndrome) leading to death (Figure 1). The disease has been recognized as a major public health problem in developing tropics and subtropics, but is now spreading rapidly globally with worldwide transportation of infective vectors of DENVs [4,5], due to: DHF was first reported in Calcutta (Kolkata), West Bengal in 1963 and 1964 [10,11], and due to the co-circulation of all four DENV (DENV1, DENV2, DENV3 and DENV4) serotypes this region has been designated as hyper-endemic [12]. Several dengue episodes hit Kolkata from time to time [13,14]

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The effect of temperature on the extrinsic incubation period and infection rate of dengue virus serotype 2 infection in Aedes albopictus

Cited by 77 publications

References 26 publications

The interplay of climate, intervention and imported cases as determinants of the 2014 dengue outbreak in Guangzhou

The interplay of climate, intervention and imported cases as determinants of the 2014 dengue outbreak in Guangzhou

Climate variation drives dengue dynamics

Preparedness for Global Dengue Resurgence: An Urgent Need

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