The effect of the business cycle at college graduation on fertility

Unemployment, Nonstandard Employment, and Fertility: Insights From Japan’s “Lost 20 Years”

“…Early-career experience of unemployment or non-standard employment may impact subsequent family formation indirectly via its impact on economic attainment in the short- to mid-term (Hershbein 2012; Oppenheimer, Kalmijn, and Lim 1997), or perhaps more directly as a signal of economic prospects in the marriage market. Empirical results are mixed, with some finding that graduating during a recession is associated with later marriage and fertility (Ahn and Mira 2001; Wolbers 2007), while others conclude that graduating in an economic downturn accelerates the transition to motherhood (Hoffman and Hohmeyer 2014; Kondo 2012). Patterns appear to differ by gender, with a higher unemployment rate at graduation associated with earlier marriage and higher fertility for women, but later marriage and lower fertility for men (Kondo 2012; Maclean, Covington, and Sikora Kessler 2016).…”

The effects of recessions on family formation

“…Despite the observed heterogeneity across countries and cohorts for less-educated women or women in general, the effect of a recession at graduation on marriage and fertility for college-educated women tends to be positive in Japan, the US, and Germany [11], [12], [13]. This implies that the income effect is weaker for college-educated women and/or the substitution effect works more strongly for them.…”

“…In Japan, a recession experienced at youth has a negative effect on fertility for high-school educated women, but the effect is opposite for college-educated women [11]. A study of German college graduates shows that a recession at graduation has a temporarily positive effect on fertility timing of women, but no effect on completed fertility [13]. Also, a recession at graduation has no effect on family formation of male college graduates in Germany, though the evidence on less-educated people is not available [13].…”

Economic Conditions at School Leaving and Sleep Patterns Across the Life Course

“…The career penalties attributable to leaving school in an economic downturn have also been shown to impact marriage outcomes (Hershbein 2012;Hofmann and Hohmeyer 2014;Maclean, Covington, and Sikora Kessler 2015). For example, American men who leave school in an economic downturn are persistently less likely to Brought to you by | EP Ipswich Authenticated Download Date | 6/1/17 10:19 AM marry and have children than comparable men who leave school under more favorable economic conditions (Maclean, Covington, and Sikora Kessler 2015).…”