The effect of uncertainty in earthquake fault parameters on the maximum wave height from a tsunami propagation model

Abstract

Abstract. Over the last decade precomputed tsunami propagation model databases have been used extensively for both tsunami forecasting and hazard and risk assessment. However, the effect of uncertainty in the earthquake source parameters on the results of the simulated scenarios of tsunami propagation has not always been examined in great detail. Here we have undertaken a systematic study of the uncertainty in the maximum wave height of a tsunami (h max ) as a function of the uncertainty in the rupture parameters of the earthquake that generates it (specifically the strike, dip, rake, depth and magnitude). We have shown that even for the simple case of a tsunami propagating over flat bathymetry, the coefficient of variation (CoV) and skewness of the distribution of h max was a complex function of the choice of rupture parameter, distance and azimuth. The relationships between these parameters and CoV became even more complex as the bathymetry used became more realistic. This has major potential implications for both how warning centres operate in the future and how the uncertainty in parameters describing the source should be incorporated into future probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments.

The Sensitivity of Tsunami Impact to Earthquake Source Parameters and Manning Friction in High-Resolution Inundation Simulations

“…We have performed both an analysis of the dependence of the inundation characteristic to the input parameter variation (seismic parameters) and to the model parameterization (Manning coefficient), but we also briefly discussed the sensitivity to the adopted discretization, that is to say how densely the allowed parameter ranges are sampled. Just as Burbidge et al (2015) demonstrated that offshore tsunami height is a complex function of earthquake parameters, we demonstrate significant differences in the intensity and extent of onshore inundation both as a function of source and friction parameters.…”

“…Geist (1998) reviews the basic tsunamigenic principles due to co-seismic slip. Gica et al (2007) and Burbidge et al (2015) perform systematic parameter sweeps to determine the sensitivity of the maximum offshore wave-height at a given location to the characteristics of the earthquake source as specified by the Okada parameters. Løvholt et al (2012c) investigated sensitivity to slip distribution for different dip angles and depth for variable slip.…”

The Mw 7.5 Tadine (Maré, Loyalty Islands) earthquake and related tsunami of 5 December 2018: seismotectonic context and numerical modeling

“…As there is a large body of evidence that small changes in , δ and λ angles may impact both the wave propagation over rugged seafloor (for example see Burbidge et al, 2015) and amplitudes of leading tsunami waves in exposed points (Necmioglȗ and Özel, 2014), sensitivity tests have been also conducted using different sets of fault orientation parameters. As detailed in Table 2, we use variations in , δ and λ angles from values used in the UM case.…”

Possible Maximum Earthquake Tsunami Along the South Coast of China Inferred From GPS‐Derived Surface Velocities

“…Even for uniform slip earthquakes, small changes in the source zone geometry can have a strong impact on tsunami results (Burbidge et al., 2015; Davies, 2019). Due to the consideration of changes in the epicenter and variability of rupture size, the slip in uniform slip model is not constant, therefore, the distribution of tsunami wave height also exhibits significant variability.…”