The Effect of Vaccine Mandates on Disease Spread: Evidence from College COVID-19 Mandates

Acton, Riley; Cao, Wenjia; Cook, Emily E.; Imberman, Scott A.; Lovenheim, Michael

doi:10.2139/ssrn.4177550

Cited by 3 publications

(6 citation statements)

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“…Previous studies have examined the impact of vaccination on population-wide COVID-19 mortality 41 as well as the effectiveness of mandates on vaccine uptake in different settings. 18,19,42 A previous study by OSHA 20 specifically projected outcomes of the proposed ETS on COVID-19-related illness and deaths. Our estimate of 1402 deaths preventable by ETS implementation was substantially lower than the OSHA estimate of 6830 deaths prevented, reflecting our more conservative methods and assumptions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover, neither our analysis nor the OSHA primary estimate included potential outcomes of reduced transmission (ie, to family members); a recent analysis examining outcomes of college-level vaccine mandates suggested that such spillover benefits may be substantial. 19 Hence, both estimates should be regarded as conservative.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Robust evidence supports the efficacy of vaccine mandates in improving vaccine uptake, [16][17][18] and growing evidence supports the association of mandates with respiratory virus outcomes, including from COVID-19. 19 The ETS would have been effective on January 4, 2022, near the peak of the first Omicron surge, but was immediately suspended by a federal district court. It was briefly reinstated, before the Supreme Court fully overturned it on January 13, 2022.…”

Section: Osha Decisionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Projected Health Outcomes Associated With 3 US Supreme Court Decisions in 2022 on COVID-19 Workplace Protections, Handgun-Carry Restrictions, and Abortion Rights

et al. 2023

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ImportanceSeveral recent US Supreme Court rulings have drawn criticism from the medical community, but their health consequences have not been quantitatively evaluated.ObjectiveTo model health outcomes associated with 3 Supreme Court rulings in 2022 that invalidated workplace COVID-19 vaccine or mask-and-test requirements, voided state handgun-carry restrictions, and revoked the constitutional right to abortion.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis decision analytical modeling study estimated outcomes associated with 3 Supreme Court rulings in 2022: (1) National Federation of Independent Business v Department of Labor, Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA), which invalidated COVID-19 workplace protections; (2) New York State Rifle and Pistol Association Inc v Bruen, Superintendent of New York State Police (Bruen), which voided state laws restricting handgun carry; and (3) Dobbs v Jackson Women’s Health Organization (Dobbs), which revoked the constitutional right to abortion. Data analysis was performed from July 1, 2022, to April 7, 2023.Main Outcomes and MeasuresFor the OSHA ruling, multiple data sources were used to calculate deaths attributable to COVID-19 among unvaccinated workers from January 4 to May 28, 2022, and the share of these deaths that would have been prevented by the voided protections. To model the Bruen decision, published estimates of the consequences of right-to-carry laws were applied to 2020 firearm-related deaths (and injuries) in 7 affected jurisdictions. For the Dobbs ruling, the model assessed unwanted pregnancy continuations, resulting from the change in distance to the closest abortion facility, and then excess deaths (and peripartum complications) from forcing these unwanted pregnancies to term.ResultsThe decision model projected that the OSHA decision was associated with 1402 additional COVID-19 deaths (and 22 830 hospitalizations) in early 2022. In addition, the model projected that 152 additional firearm-related deaths (and 377 nonfatal injuries) annually will result from the Bruen decision. Finally, the model projected that 30 440 fewer abortions will occur annually due to current abortion bans stemming from Dobbs, with 76 612 fewer abortions if states at high risk for such bans also were to ban the procedure; these bans will be associated with an estimated 6 to 15 additional pregnancy-related deaths each year, respectively, and hundreds of additional cases of peripartum morbidity.Conclusions and RelevanceThese findings suggest that outcomes from 3 Supreme Court decisions in 2022 could lead to substantial harms to public health, including nearly 3000 excess deaths (and possibly many more) over a decade.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Osha Decisionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Projected Health Outcomes Associated With 3 US Supreme Court Decisions in 2022 on COVID-19 Workplace Protections, Handgun-Carry Restrictions, and Abortion Rights

et al. 2023

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Section: Measuring the Effects Of Public Health Measuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…14 Furthermore, a study by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that vaccine mandates implemented in American colleges saved about 7300 lives during a period of just 13 weeks in fall 2021. 15 Masking policies have also been reframed by some as a medically useless form of "lockdown," despite having no impact on freedom of movement. Masking is a complex intervention to study, since the quality of masks and the contexts in which they are worn vary greatly.…”

Section: Measuring the Effects Of Public Health Measuresmentioning

confidence: 99%