The effect of valence and ideology in campaign conversion: panel evidence from three Spanish general elections

Abstract

This paper studies changes in voting preferences over election campaigns. Building on the literature on spatial models and valence issues, we study whether 1) ideological distance to political parties, 2) assessments of partiesÕ competence to handle different policy issues, and 3) votersÕ updating of candidatesÕ evaluations are factors that explain shifts in votersÕ choice in the weeks preceding the election. To test our hypotheses we use data from three survey panels conducted for the 2008, 2011 and 2015 Spanish general elections. Our findings show that valence factors are more influential than ideological indifference to account for campaign conversion.

Personal Agenda-Public Agenda Congruency: A Contingent Condition for Agenda-setting Effects

“…The socialist party's 2008-2011 term had taken its political toll on the party with an economic crisis, soaring unemployment, plus there was the general public's overall disillusionment with the political class, all paving the way for the arrival of a new system of parties (Anduiza et al, 2014;García-Viñuela et al, 2018;Llera, 2011). The 2011 elections were held in exceptional circumstances, not only because of the problems which had sprung up beforehand, but because that year witnessed the appearance of the "15 M" or "Indignant" movement defining itself as a civil society seeking political change.…”

An Experimental Test of the Validity of Survey-Measured Political Ideology

“…If one thing stands out in Table 2.1, then it is the observation that survey measured ideology is used in various sub-fields of economics. It varies from defence and peace economics (Torgler (2010)), to common market economics (Scully, et al (2012)), happiness studies (Bjornskov, et al (2013) ;Dreher & Ohler (2011)), economic policy (Boeri, et al (2001)), foreign aid (Bodenstein & Faust (2017)), environmental economics (Neumayer (2004)), social economics (Baslevent & Maran (2015)) and many more, to voting studies (Ansolabehere & Socorro Puy (2016); Garcia-Vinuela, et al (2018)). This highlights the common use of survey-based measures of political ideology in the economics literature.…”