“…Plasticity is estimated from the most effective documented weatherization programs, which have combined financial incentives (grants or rebates covering most of the retrofit cost), convenience features (e.g., one-stop shopping), quality assurance (e.g., certification for contractors, inspection of work), and strong social marketing. The highest recorded plasticity is 85% over 27 months (28); rates of 15-20% per year have been recorded several times (21). Assuming the most effective interventions are deployed, we estimate plasticity of 80% in 5 years and 90% in 10 years, except for furnaces and central AC equipment, for which we assume replacement only at the end of the useful life of existing equipment, resulting in 80% plasticity in 10 years.…”