The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy since the Onset of the Financial Crisis

Abstract

JT03343552Complete document available on OLIS in its original format This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. ECO/WKP(2013)73 Unclassified English -Or. English ECO/WKP(2013)73 2 ABSTRACT/RÉSUMÉThe effectiveness of monetary policy since the onset of the financial crisisIn the wake of the Great Recession, a massive monetary policy stimulus was provided in the main OECD economies. It helped to stabilise financial markets and avoid deflation. Nonetheless, GDP growth has been sluggish and in some countries lower than expected given the measures taken, and estimated economic slack remains large. In this context, this paper assesses the effectiveness of monetary policy in recent years. It finds that notwithstanding an almost full transmission of policy interest rate cuts and unconventional policy measures to higher asset prices and lower cost of credit in and outside the banking sector in most countries, with the exception of vulnerable euro area economies, monetary policy stimulus did not show up in stronger growth due to a combination of three factors. First, lower policy interest rates may not have provided as much stimulus as expected given the evidence of a decrease in natural interest rates, resulting from the estimated decline in potential GDP growth in the wake of the crisis. Second, balance sheet adjustments of non-financial companies and households, large uncertainty as well as simultaneous and considerable fiscal consolidation in many OECD countries constituted important headwinds. Third, the bank lending channel of monetary policy transmission appears to have been impaired, mainly due to considerable balance sheet adjustments and prevailing uncertainty, which together limited banks' capacity and willingness to supply credit. The paper also stresses that the monetary accommodation risks having unintended negative consequences which are likely to increase with its duration. JEL classification codes: E32; E43; E44; E5; G01; H12; G28 Keywords: Monetary policy, natural interest rates, credit, financial markets, financial crisis ****************************** L'efficacité de la politique monétaire depuis le début de la crise financière Dans le sillage de la Grande Récession, un important stimulus monétaire a été fourni dans les principales économies de l'OCDE. Il a permis de stabiliser les marchés financiers et d'éviter la déflation. Toutefois, la croissance du PIB a été lente et dans certains pays plus faible qu'attendue compte tenu des mesures prises, et le ralentissement économique estimé demeure important. Dans ce contexte, ce papier évalue l'efficacité de la politique monétaire au cours des années récentes. Il trouve qu'en dépit d'une transmission presque complète des baisses de taux d'intérêt et des mesures non conventionnelles de politique monétaire à des prix d'actifs plus élevés et un coût du crédit plus faible à l'intérie...

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