The effectiveness of national-level containment and closure policies across income levels during the COVID-19 pandemic: an analysis of 113 countries

Abstract

Despite heterogeneity in income levels, countries implemented similarly strict containment and closure policies to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. This research assesses the effectiveness of these containment and closure policies, which we defined as larger decreases in mobility and smaller COVID-19 case and death growth rates. Using daily data for 113 countries on mobility and cumulative COVID-19 case and death counts over the 130 days between February 15, 2020 and June 23, 2020, we examined changes in mobility, morbidity, and mortality growth rates across the World Bank’s income group classifications. Containment policies correlated with the largest declines in mobility in higher income countries. High-income countries also achieved lower COVID-19 case and death growth rates than low-income countries. This study finds better epidemiological outcomes of containment and closure policies for higher income countries than lower income countries. These findings urge policymakers to consider contextual differences, including levels of economic activity and the structure of the economy, when crafting policies in response to public health emergencies.

COVID-19 Pandemic: How Effective Are Preventive Control Measures and Is a Complete Lockdown Justified? A Comparison of Countries and States

“…Lockdowns are evidently not related to political repression; nevertheless, political repressions and medical control measures during epidemics/pandemics have one thing in common: controlling citizens. However, the result that control measures of "richer" countries are less effective and stands in sharp contrast to the conclusions of Pincombe et al [25], namely that "containment and closure policies were more effective in high-income countries" (the GNI/gross national income [65] is related to the GDP [54] at R 2 = 0.99). Pincombe et al [25], however, defined their effectiveness measure in a different way we did, namely from "larger decreases in mobility" and "smaller COVID-19 case and death growth rates".…”

“…Pincombe et al [25] defined their effectiveness measure as "larger decreases in mobility" and "smaller COVID-19 case and death growth rates" but did not combine these variables in a single effectiveness parameter.…”

Analyzing the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Lockdown Policies Using the Time-Dependent Reproduction Number and the Regression Discontinuity Framework: Comparison between Countries

“…Governments worldwide have implemented similarly strict containment and closure policies to mitigate the pandemic in order to limit the spread of the virus. These restrictive community measures that limit activities or access to resources, facilities, or institutions have been often referred to as "lockdown" measures in Asia, Europe, and America [2,3]. Countries exhibited 'herd behavior' in response to COVID-19 [2] meaning they applied similar restrictive measures.…”

“…These restrictive community measures that limit activities or access to resources, facilities, or institutions have been often referred to as "lockdown" measures in Asia, Europe, and America [2,3]. Countries exhibited 'herd behavior' in response to COVID-19 [2] meaning they applied similar restrictive measures. However, the effectiveness of these measures has been different between countries.…”

“…Related research shows that policy effectiveness is associated with income groups [2], regional political trust, and compliance [7], as well as country preparedness, socioeconomic factors [4], and a country's values [3]. More and more research has pooled coronavirus data Eng.…”