The Effectiveness of School Closures and Other Pre-Lockdown COVID-19 Mitigation Strategies in Argentina, Italy, and South Korea

Abstract

The rapid spread of COVID-19 forced policy-makers to swiftly find solutions to reduce infection rates and keep mortality as low as possible. Empirical analyses on the effectiveness of control measures are hereby of primary importance. School closures were among the earliest measures enacted by the governments of most countries. However, while schools are now reopening in many countries, the impact of school closures on the course of the epidemic is still an open question. Adopting parametric and non-parametric synthetic control methods we estimate the effectiveness of pro-active school closures, and other early social distancing interventions, in three countries that reacted relatively early during the course of the pandemic. Our findings suggest that these interventions were effective at reducing the mortality rate of COVID-19, especially when enacted early.

Do school closures and school reopenings affect community transmission of COVID-19? A systematic review of observational studies

“…Included studies are described in Table 1. All studies [13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22] reported the effect of school closures on community transmission of SARS-CoV-2, and one study 21 additionally examined school re-opening. All studies used data from national Government sources or international data repositories, and reported on the first half of 2020.…”

“…Six studies specifically sought to estimate an effect of school closures on SARS-CoV-2 transmission. [13][14][15]17,18,21 The remaining four studies primarily sought to estimate the effect of NPIs (but reported an independent estimate for school closures within their analysis) . 16,19,20,22 Several analytic approaches were used, including: various types of regression models (n-7), 13,14,[16][17][18][19][20]22 time series analysis with Bayesian inference (n=1), 15 comparison to a synthetic control group derived from data from comparable countries (n=1), 18 and presentation of an epidemic curve 21 .…”

“…Regarding outcomes, eight studies [13][14][15][16][17]19,21,22 reported effects on incidence, and four studies 13,17,18,20 used mortality data (one of which 17 additionally reported hospitalisation rates). The assumed lag period from school closure to changes in incidence rate varied between seven and 20 days, with longer time periods of 26 to 28 days generally assumed for mortality.…”

“…The assumed lag period from school closure to changes in incidence rate varied between seven and 20 days, with longer time periods of 26 to 28 days generally assumed for mortality. Table 2: two studies were found to be at low risk of bias 14,22 , two at moderate risk 13,17 , five at serious risk 15,16,[18][19][20] and one at critical risk 21 . Table 3 reports study findings.…”

“…Table 3 reports study findings. Seven studies 13,[16][17][18][19][20][21] reported that closing schools was associated with a reduction in incidence or mortality rates, whilst three 14,15,22 found no association. There was significant heterogeneity in the reported effect size of closing schools, ranging from precise estimates of no effect, to approximately halving the incidence and mortality rates 13 .…”