The effectiveness of travel restriction measures in alleviating the COVID-19 epidemic: evidence from Shenzhen, China

Abstract

With the expansion of the global novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, unprecedented interventions have been widely implemented in many countries, including China. In view of this scenario, this research aims to explore the effectiveness of population mobility restriction in alleviating epidemic transmission during different stages of the outbreak. Taking Shenzhen, a city with a large immigrant population in China, as a case study, the real-time reproduction number of COVID-19 is estimated by statistical methods to represent the dynamic spatiotemporal transmission pattern of COVID-19. Furthermore, migration data between Shenzhen and other provinces are collected to investigate the impact of nationwide population flow on near-real-time dynamic reproductive numbers. The results show that traffic flow control between populated cities has an inhibitory effect on urban transmission, but this effect is not significant in the late stage of the epidemic spread in China. This finding implies that the government should limit international and domestic population movement starting from the very early stage of the outbreak. This work confirms the effectiveness of travel restriction measures in the face of COVID-19 in China and provides new insight for densely populated cities in imposing intervention measures at various stages of the transmission cycle.

Spatiotemporal distribution analysis of the COVID-19 in Shenzhen based on geographic information system

“…As an important port city, Shenzhen City is greatly affected by COVID-19 [14]. The epidemic of COVID-19 in Shenzhen was influenced by temperature, humidity, and travel restriction measures, as illustrated in other studies [15][16][17]. At the same time, the correlation between close contacts and infected cases was also reported [18].…”

Genetic characteristics of classical astroviruses in Shenzhen, China, 2016–2019

“…Shenzhen is a special economic zone and one of the most important economic centers in Southern China. Due to its high population mobility and frequent economic exchanges, both domestically and internationally, the city may become a hotbed for transregional migration and rapid transmission of diverse viruses, including astroviruses 39 . Considering the economic status and population base of China, it is crucial to monitor viral pathogens to safeguard public health.…”

“…Due to its high population mobility and frequent economic exchanges, both domestically and internationally, the city may become a hotbed for transregional migration and rapid transmission of diverse viruses, including astroviruses. 39 Considering the economic status and population base of China, it is crucial to monitor viral pathogens to safeguard public health. In this research, the Shenzhen Infectious Diarrhea Surveillance Network was referenced to identify enteroviruses, including astroviruses, currently circulating in the region.…”

Interaction between travel restriction policies and the spread of COVID-19

“… Karaivanov et al March 2020–November 2020 Canada An improved causal structure model framework Mask mandates led to an increase of 27 percentage points in self-reported mask wearing in public. Ji et al January 13, 2020–March 3, 2020 China Statistical methods Traffic flow control had an inhibitory effect on urban transmission, but this effect is not significant in the late stage of the pandemic spread in China. Askitas et al No specific time 175 countries Statistical models Canceling public events, imposing restrictions on private gatherings and closing schools and workplaces were effective.…”