The effects of climate change mitigation strategies on the energy system of Africa and its associated water footprint

Abstract

Africa’s economic and population growth prospects are likely to increase energy and water demands. This quantitative study shows that energy decarbonisation pathways reduce both water withdrawals and water consumption relative to the baseline scenario. However, the more aggressive decarbonisation pathway (1.5oC) leads to higher overall water withdrawals than the 2.0oC scenario but lower water consumption levels by 2065. By 2065, investments in low-carbon energy infrastructure increase annual water withdrawals from 1% (52bcm) in the 2.0oC to 2% (85bcm) in the 1.5oC scenarios of total renewable water resources in Africa compared to 3% (159bcm) in the baseline scenario with lower final energy demands in the mitigation scenarios. Water consumption decreases from 1.2bcm in the 2.0oC to 1bcm in the 1.5oC scenario, compared to 2.2bcm in the baseline scenario by 2065, due to the lower water intensity of the low-carbon energy systems. To meet the 1.5oC pathway, the energy sector requires a higher water withdrawal than the 2.0oC scenario, both in total and per unit of final energy. Overall, these findings demonstrate the crucial role of integrated water-energy planning, and the need for joined-up carbon policy and water resources management for the continent to achieve climate-compatible growth.

Declining cost of renewables and climate change curb the need for African hydropower expansion

“…First, we used the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) database ( 35 ) to obtain projected energy demands. Second, we relied on the African Hydropower Atlas ( 16 ) to characterize each hydropower project in the OSeMOSYS-TEMBA model ( 36 ). Third, to coherently account for the coevolution of the climatic and the socioeconomic system, we used the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b) scenarios ( 37 ) to represent the future hydrological regime that will result from changes in the climate system and the land-use sector.…”

The Burden of the Broken Grid: Modelling improved power-sector reliability to support low carbon development in Nigeria

“…Hydropower is the only renewable resource currently exploited at a large scale. The 1,990 MW installed capacity is roughly 14% of the estimated technical potential of 14,120 MW (Pappis et al, 2019). Given this resource availability, the predominant struggle for the nation is the incentivisation of renewable energy development and its reliable integration into the grid.…”

Incremental Advances to Address Challenges in Long-Term Strategic Energy Planning in LMICs

“…Energy modelling tools are widely used to support energy planning and decision-making. They provide a comprehensive and systematic approach to analyse and evaluate different energy scenarios and ensure energy policies are aligned with national (and or regional) energy needs, signalling where and how to invest in the energy sector [19], [20], [21], [22], [23]. These tools simulate and/or optimise energy supply and demand systems to determine cost-effective and sustainable energy mixes.…”