The effects of daily growth in COVID-19 deaths, cases, and governments’ response policies on stock markets of emerging economies

Murat, Güven; Cetinguc, Basak; Güloğlu, Bülent; Çalışır, Fethi

doi:10.1016/j.ribaf.2022.101659

Cited by 29 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…Regarding the policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, Guven et al (2022) argued that state aid programmes in selected emerging econo-mies have positively influenced the stock market and effectively reduced the negative impact of the daily growth of confirmed infections and deaths. Moreover, analysing the effects of the pandemic on financial markets, Chatjuthamard et al (2021) argued that an increase in infections negatively influences stock market returns, whereas the impact is more substantial in the countries with a higher financial risk.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, whether there is a close link between the number of confirmed cases, deaths and economic indicators during the COVID-19 pandemic remains uncertain. Studies have analysed the impact of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths on the stock market (Chatjuthamard et al, 2021;Guven et al, 2022), economic growth (Feng et al, 2022), industrial production in selected OECD countries (Apergis & Apergis, 2021) and unemployment in the United States (Matthay et al, 2021) and five European Union (EU) countries (Su et al, 2021). However, no comprehensive investigation has analysed the interconnections between the COVID-19 pandemic and macro-economic indicators in the EU.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Economic growth and labour market in the European Union: lessons from COVID-19

Přívara

2022

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Research background: The world has been fighting the new pandemic caused by COVID-19 since March 2020. The subsequent restrictions on economic activity resulted in a supply shock, accompanied by a supply chain disruption, job layoffs, reduced work time and wages and decreased disposable incomes and taxes, which led to a demand shock. However, whether a close link exists between the number of confirmed cases, deaths and economic indicators during the COVID-19 pandemic remains uncertain. Purpose of the article: The current study aims to analyse the impact of the number of infections and deaths on economic growth and labour market indicators in the member states of the European Union. Methods: To achieve the main research goal, we conduct a panel data analysis on the quarterly data of 2020. Specifically, we developed three random-effects panel data econometric models to estimate the significance of infection and mortality rates for economic growth as well as employment and unemployment rates. Findings & value added: This study contributes to the existing literature by analysing the link between the infection and mortality rates of COVID-19 and selecting macro-economic indicators within the European Union. The results show that the infection rate is not a significant variable for economic growth and labour market indicators. However, an increase in the number of confirmed deaths has a significantly negative impact on the economy. Moreover, an increase in the mortality rate has a worse impact on the labour market than on economic growth in general. These results can serve as a theoretical basis for future research on the interconnections between pandemics and macro-economic indicators. The findings can also contribute to developing efficient policy instruments for mitigating the negative impact of pandemics in the future, thereby ensuring the cooperation of fiscal, monetary and health policy authorities.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic growth and labour market in the European Union: lessons from COVID-19

Přívara

2022

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“…Specifically, increased Covid-19 new cases are associated with lower stock market returns [ 22 – 24 ], while the effect on stock market volatility is mixed [ 25 ]. Regarding the policy responses, an increase in the containment and health index is associated with positive stock market returns [ 23 , 24 , 27 ] and mitigates market volatility [ 25 ]. Meanwhile, heightened economic policy uncertainty is related to negative market returns [ 26 , 30 ] and strengthens volatility in the short run [ 28 , 29 ].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Meanwhile, previous studies have found significant effects of the Covid-19 pandemic [22][23][24][25], policy responses [23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30], and macroeconomic fundamentals [31][32][33][34] on stock market returns and volatility. Specifically, increased Covid-19 new cases are associated with lower stock market returns [22][23][24], while the effect on stock market volatility is mixed [25].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Other studies have focused on the connectedness among different markets with the exposure to market risk from the Covid-19 pandemic [17][18][19][20][21]. Meanwhile, previous studies have confirmed significant effects of the Covid-19 pandemic [22][23][24][25], policy responses [23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30] and macroeconomic fundamentals [31][32][33][34] on stock market return and volatility.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, policy responses and macroeconomic fundamentals on market risks across sectors in Vietnam

et al. 2022

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Vietnam has undergone four waves of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, which have posed significant market risks to various sectors. Understanding the market risk of Vietnamese sectors and its changes is important for policy implementation to support the economy after the pandemic. This study measures the sectoral market risks and examines the effects of the pandemic, policy responses and macroeconomic fundamentals on the market risks across sectors in Vietnam. We employ the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) techniques to measure the market risks for 24 sectors from 2012 to 2021. The market risk levels across Vietnamese sectors have changed significantly in response to the pandemic. Oil and Gas and Services sectors show the largest potential loss during the two Covid-19 waves in 2020. The Securities sector is the riskiest sector during the last two Covid-19 waves in 2021. Our results indicate that the new Covid-19 cases reported by the Government increase the market risk levels across Vietnamese sectors. On the other hand, enhancing containment and health policy and reducing economic policy uncertainty result in lower market risk across sectors. We also find that macroeconomic fundamentals such as the exchange rate and interest rate significantly affect the market risks across sectors in Vietnam.

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