The Effects of Downturns on Labour Force Participation

Akcigit, Ufuk; Eris, Mehmet; Furceri, Davide

doi:10.1787/5kg9q0nmbws8-en

Cited by 14 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…Labor force participation rises when real GDP is above its HP-filtered trend and declines when real GDP is below its HP-filtered trend. 22 As the age increases, the sensitivity to cyclicality decreases and participation eventually becomes countercyclical (Balakrishnan et al 2015;Duval, Eris, and Furceri 2011). This may reflect greater ability of more experienced workers to remain employed or return to employment after spells of unemployment during recessions (Elsby, Hobijn, and Şahin 2015;Shimer 2013).…”

Section: Annex a Production Function Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential Growth: A Global Database

Çelik¹,

Kose²,

Ohnsorge³

et al. 2023

Policy Research Working Papers

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Potential growth-the rate of expansion an economy can sustain at full capacity and employment-is a critical driver of development progress. It is also a major input in the formulation of fiscal and monetary policies over the business cycle. This paper introduces the most comprehensive database to date, covering the nine most commonly used measures of potential growth for up to 173 countries over 1981-2021. Based on this database, the paper presents three findings. First, all measures of global potential growth show a steady and widespread decline over the past decade, with all the fundamental drivers of growth losing momentum over time. In 2011-21, potential growth was below its 2000-10 average in nearly all advanced economies and roughly 60 percent of emerging market and developing economies. Second, adverse events, such as the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, contributed to the decline. At the country-level also, national recessions lowered potential growth even five years after their onset. Third, the persistent impact of recessions on potential growth operated through weaker growth of investment, employment, and productivity.

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Section: Annex a Production Function Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential Growth: A Global Database

Çelik¹,

Kose²,

Ohnsorge³

et al. 2023

Policy Research Working Papers

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“…It facilitates to see the effects of the crisis, especially in developing countries, because a financial crisis can affect many areas in real markets (Furceri & Zdzienicka, 2012). In recent studies, a financial crisis causes major losses in production (Cecchetti, Kohler, & Upper, 2009;Cerra & Saxena, 2008), increases unemployment and negatively affects labor participation (Bernal Verdugo, Furceri, & Guillaume, 2012;Duval, Eris, & Furceri, 2011), and has a profound and devastating impact on foreign direct investments and trade (Bogach & Noy, 2012;Ma & Cheng, 2003).…”

Section: Development Of 2008 Financial Crisismentioning

confidence: 99%

2008 Financial Crisis: A Comparative Analysis of Turkey and Brazil in Terms of Economic Policies

Gölçek¹

2020

JECS

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The Financial Crisis, which broke out in the US due to the mortgage bubble, had spread through financial channels to core countries. The periphery countries that weren't fully integrated into the financial markets had been influenced via economic ways, indirectly. However the crisis -spreading on a global scale-had had negative impacts on all countries and had led to changes in the economic policies of states. One of the possibilities of the crisis was for it to turn into a cyclical crisis because of its reach throughout the whole world and the failure of economic policies -applied to one after another-in the preventing of the spread and impact of the crisis in a short time, resulting in economic and neoliberal policies being questioned. The periphery economies, being economically affected by the crisis, had to assume many economic costs due to mortgage loans in the US, which had nothing to do with them. In the study, through the examples of Brazil and Turkey within the framework of these discussions, the implication of economic policy has been examined for periphery countries. In the study, the way in which both countries were affected by the crisis has been evaluated through net capital flows, foreign direct investments, foreign trade data, and main economic indicators. Although neoliberal policies, which pushed both countries towards this process, had added them to the global economic system, they had to apply Keynesian policies because neoliberalism had become inadequate in exiting the crisis. In the conclusion of the study, policy proposals have been made for getting out of the crisis by discussing the ineffectiveness of the economic policies that had been implemented.

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Banking Crises and Short and Medium Term Output Losses in Emerging and Developing Countries: The Role of Structural and Policy Variables

Furceri

Zdzienicka

2012

World Development

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The Effects of Downturns on Labour Force Participation

Cited by 14 publications

References 33 publications

Potential Growth: A Global Database

Potential Growth: A Global Database

2008 Financial Crisis: A Comparative Analysis of Turkey and Brazil in Terms of Economic Policies

Banking Crises and Short and Medium Term Output Losses in Emerging and Developing Countries: The Role of Structural and Policy Variables

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