The effects of exchange rate volatility on trade: evidence from Turkish agricultural trade

Erdal, Gülistan; Erdal, Hilmi; Esengün, Kemal

doi:10.1080/13504851.2011.576996

Cited by 27 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…They concluded that fluctuation in exchange rate is significant and has long run association on the import price of both non-agricultural sector and on export earnings of the agricultural sector. This supports the finds of Erdal et al (2012). Also, Zmami and Ben-Salha (2015) investigated the effect of exchange volatility was examined on micro dataset of 548 Manufacturing companies in Tunisia for period of 1997-2002 using GMM techniques.…”

Section: Literature Reviewsupporting

confidence: 52%

“…There is long association between Exchange rate and Export in Nigeria. This is supported by Erdal et al (2012). The exchange rate has an effect on the trade surplus (or deficit), which in turn affects the exchange rate, and so on.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 72%

“…Therefore, it may bring a diversion of proceeds from importing countries to countries exporting via a shift in terms of trade, and this may have a tendency to to have an effect on the exporting and importing countries'. Erdal et al (2012) also examined the impact of exchange volatilities on agriculture export and import for period of 1995 to 2007. The long run association was established via Johansen co-integration test and Granger causality.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The analysis of Pedroni Co-integration and VECM on export performance and exchange rate fluctuation

Mahmood

2017

Int. j. adv. appl. sci.

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The study investigates the relationship between exchange rate fluctuation and Nigerian export performance between 1980-2015 using Pedroni Cointegration Approach and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM).The found long run relationship between exchange rate and Nigerian export performance and also export rate greatly affects balance of trade and with the speed of adjustment toward long run equilibrium is -0.384858 which is significant at 0.01%. This indicates long run causality between exchange rate and export in Nigeria. Based on the findings, the study suggests that Nigeria should depreciate naira as a reduction in the exchange rate will reduce export prices, and, assuming demand is elastic, export revenue will increase.

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Section: Literature Reviewsupporting

confidence: 52%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 72%

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The analysis of Pedroni Co-integration and VECM on export performance and exchange rate fluctuation

Mahmood

2017

Int. j. adv. appl. sci.

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“…Furthermore, Hatab et al (2010) found that the depreciation in Egyptian pound improves Egypt"s agricultural exports. Erdal et al (2012) found that there is a positive unidirectional causality relationship moving from the real exchange rate volatility to agricultural export in Turkey.…”

Section: Previous Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Trade Openness, Exchange Rate, and Oil Price on the Exports in Syria

Mohsen¹

2015

European Journal of Economic Studies

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This study attempts to test the effect of trade openness, exchange rate and oil price on the exports in Syria over the period . The cointegration test indicates that exports are positively related to trade openness and oil price, but negatively related to exchange rate. Exchange rate has the biggest effect on the exports. The Granger causality test indicates bidirectional causality relationships between trade openness, exchange rate, oil price and exports in the short and long run. The study result indicates that, in order to boost the Syrian exports, it is vital for the Syrian government to open up the Syrian economy to foreign trade, decline the Syrian pound exchange rate, improve the quality of the Syrian exports, and decline the crude oil exports.

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“…By using annual data at the firm level over 2001, Solakoglu et al, (2008 argue that there is no significant relationship between the exchange rate volatility and real exports of Turkey. Erdal et al, (2012) analyze the relationship between the exchange rate volatility and agricultural imports/exports of Turkey using the data from 1995 to 2007 period. They claim that the exchange rate volatility has a significant positive impact on the agricultural exports but a negative impact on the agricultural imports.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effect of real exchange rates and their volatilities on the selected agricultural commodity exports: A case study on Turkey, 1971-2010

Yanıkkaya¹,

Kaya²,

Koçtürk³

2013

Agric. Econ. - Czech

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235After the collapse of the Brettonwood system in 1973, most of the countries have abandoned to use solely the fixed exchange rate regime, and different countries have adapted different exchange rate regimes. Then, the impact of both the exchange rate level and the exchange rate volatility or variability especially on exports, the bilateral trade flows and the volumes of trade have been empirically and theoretically discussed.A large number of studies examine both the effect of the exchange rate and its volatility on agricultural trade. However, no consensus was reached yet on the relationship between the exchange rate and agricultural trade. As discussed in the literature, it is important to use disaggregated data and/or data on the individual commodities to get more meaningful results on the size and magnitude of the effects of the real exchange rates on agricultural commodities trade. (Awokuse and Yuan 2006;Byrne et al. 2008;Bahmani-Oskooee and Hegerty 2009;Karemera et al. 2011). Byrne et al. (2008) discuss the possibility of finding a negative effect of the exchange rate volatility on trade by pooling the data of all industries together, and claim that the disaggregation of the data such as firm, industry or commodity level could provide more appropriate and meaningful results. Considering the individual sectors and/or commodities is vitally important to understand the exact nature of the relation and to further tailor effective policy measures based on these fine results. Thus, we investigate the relationship between the real exchange rates and several of the most important Turkish agricultural commodities. They represent almost a quarter of the overall Turkish agricultural exports. LITERATURE REVIEWA number of studies ( Hooper and Kohlhagen 1978;Arize et al. 2008;Kafle and Kennedy 2012) argue that the exchange rate volatility can have a negative effect on the international trade flows, either directly through the uncertainty and adjustment costs or indirectly through its effect on the allocation of resources and government policies. The volatile nature of exchange rates has always led risk-averse traders to reduce their trading activities ultimately reducing the international trade flows. However, Arize et al. Abstract: Th is study investigates the eff ect of the exchange rate volatility and the real exchange rate on the bilateral agricultural exports fl ows of Turkey to 46 countries. A panel data set, which contains 46 cross-sections and 1840 observations, is used for exports of the selected agricultural commodities to countries from 1971 to 2010. Our empirical results based on a gravity equation show that while the exchange rate volatility does not exert a signifi cant eff ect on the Turkish agricultural commodity exports, the real exchange rate has a statistically signifi cant eff ect on the agricultural commodity export fl ows. Regardless of the region chosen, raisins and tobacco exports are very much sensitive to the real exchange rates. It means that any depreciation in the Turkish Lira leads to hig...

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The effects of exchange rate volatility on trade: evidence from Turkish agricultural trade

Cited by 27 publications

References 20 publications

The analysis of Pedroni Co-integration and VECM on export performance and exchange rate fluctuation

The analysis of Pedroni Co-integration and VECM on export performance and exchange rate fluctuation

Effects of Trade Openness, Exchange Rate, and Oil Price on the Exports in Syria

The effect of real exchange rates and their volatilities on the selected agricultural commodity exports: A case study on Turkey, 1971-2010

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