The effects of experience and uncertainty on hypothesis generation and testing in threat assessment

Abstract

This study explored the decision-making processes of soldiers as they evaluated scenarios containing information offering various levels of certainty. Soldiers with different levels of experience read scenarios that presented potential threats and then identified the priority threat, their confidence in this identification, and the cues they used to identify priority threats. Soldiers then searched for additional scenariorelevant information and modified their reports if their assessments changed. Compared with inexperienced soldiers, experienced soldiers reported a greater number of priority threats and informative cues and were more likely to search additional topics that matched details in their initial assessments. High certainty scenarios yielded more identified threats, more cues, and higher confidence in initial reports. Soldiers' initial assessments rarely changed after additional information searches, but when they did, they were associated with low initial confidence.