The effects of future nationwide forest transition to discharge in the 21st century with regard to general circulation model climate change scenarios

Mouri, Goro; Nakano, Katsuhiro; Tsuyama, Ikutaro; Tanaka, Nobuyuki

doi:10.1016/j.envres.2016.01.024

Cited by 8 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 50 publications

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“…The determination of how relationships between site factors and bacterial communities affect the equilibrium between soil organic matter decomposition and C sequestration in forests is of para-mount importance for prediction of the responses of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change (224). Future climatic conditions are predicted to produce tree species migration (225,226), an increase in extreme events, such as droughts and wildfires, and an increase in vegetation productivity due to longer growth seasons (13,227,228). These effects in combination with other phenomena, such as increased N deposition, may cause dramatic shifts in global C fluxes, in particular affecting the boreal and temperate forests of the northern continental regions (229)(230)(231).…”

Section: Effects Of Global Change On Bacterial Communities In Forest mentioning

confidence: 99%

Forest Soil Bacteria: Diversity, Involvement in Ecosystem Processes, and Response to Global Change

Lladó

López-Mondéjar

Baldrián

2017

Microbiol Mol Biol Rev

527

302

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The ecology of forest soils is an important field of research due to the role of forests as carbon sinks. Consequently, a significant amount of information has been accumulated concerning their ecology, especially for temperate and boreal forests. Although most studies have focused on fungi, forest soil bacteria also play important roles in this environment. In forest soils, bacteria inhabit multiple habitats with specific properties, including bulk soil, rhizosphere, litter, and deadwood habitats, where their communities are shaped by nutrient availability and biotic interactions. Bacteria contribute to a range of essential soil processes involved in the cycling of carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus. They take part in the decomposition of dead plant biomass and are highly important for the decomposition of dead fungal mycelia. In rhizospheres of forest trees, bacteria interact with plant roots and mycorrhizal fungi as commensalists or mycorrhiza helpers. Bacteria also mediate multiple critical steps in the nitrogen cycle, including N fixation. Bacterial communities in forest soils respond to the effects of global change, such as climate warming, increased levels of carbon dioxide, or anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. This response, however, often reflects the specificities of each studied forest ecosystem, and it is still impossible to fully incorporate bacteria into predictive models. The understanding of bacterial ecology in forest soils has advanced dramatically in recent years, but it is still incomplete. The exact extent of the contribution of bacteria to forest ecosystem processes will be recognized only in the future, when the activities of all soil community members are studied simultaneously.

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Section: Effects Of Global Change On Bacterial Communities In Forest mentioning

confidence: 99%

Forest Soil Bacteria: Diversity, Involvement in Ecosystem Processes, and Response to Global Change

Lladó

López-Mondéjar

Baldrián

2017

Microbiol Mol Biol Rev

527

302

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“…However, as GCM is the tool primary for global-scale climate prediction [33,34], the resolution of GCM outputs is too coarse to be directly applied to hydrological modelling which is generally performed on a basin scale [33]. Therefore, downscaling techniques are used to produce high-resolution climate change projections in order to bridge this gap in coupling the GCM with the hydrological model.…”

Section: Establishment Of Future Climate Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Runoff Responses to Climate and Land Use/Cover Changes under Future Scenarios

Pan

Liu

Wang

et al. 2017

Water

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Climate and land use/cover (LUC) are the two most significant factors that directly affect the runoff process. However, most research on runoff response has focused mainly on projected climate variation, while future LUC variability has been neglected. Therefore, the objective of this study is to examine the impacts of projected climate and LUC changes on runoff. -2020, 2021-2030, 2031-2040 and 2041-2050 period, abbreviated S3). These three scenarios are then input into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to assess runoff responses. Beijiang River Basin, located in southern China, is used in this case study. The results obtained from S1, S2 and S3 show that runoff change in this basin is mainly caused by climate change; warmer temperatures and greater precipitation increase runoff. LUC change has little influence on runoff at the whole-basin scale, but changes in runoff components are more notable in the urban area than in the natural region at the sub-watershed level. The impact of LUC change in urbanized region on runoff components differ obviously among the wet, normal and dry years, and surface runoff and groundwater are found to be more sensitive to urbanization. Runoff depth is predicted to increase in this basin under the impacts of both climate and LUC changes in the future. Climate change brings greater increase in water yield and surface runoff, whereas LUC change leads to changes in allocation between surface runoff and groundwater in the urban region.

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“…Some groups have predicted increases in erosion over the coming decades due to climate change (Li and Fang, (2016) 83 ). In this study, the calculations incorporated the effects of climate change by incorporation of general circulation model (GCM) climate change scenarios with 50-year runoff forecasts (Mouri, (2016b) 78 ). Four GCMs were selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to provide the driving factors: the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), the Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-GCM), the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM), and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate model.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The decreasing concentration during this period is attributed to the rapid mobilisation of both water and 137 Cs with incorporation of the amphibious effects of forest transition and runoff, based on GCM climate change scenarios. The correspondence of the projected forest type and typical land cover was estimated from the Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute (FFPRI) dataset (Mouri, (2016b) 78 ). The ratio for the present conditions associated with land cover and climate revealed an increase in the average runoff in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area of approximately 21%.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The CO 2 emissions scenario used in this study was the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario and the climate models were MIROC3.2 and MRI-CGCM 2.3.2, based on the climate predictions of CMIP5. Dynamic and statistical downscaling methods were applied to the four GCMs (MIROC, MRI-GCM, HadGEM, and GFDL) under the RCP scenario to bridge the gap between available GCM outputs and the climate inputs required for impact models (Mouri, (2016b) 78 ). Estimation of spatial and temporal variation in monthly precipitation incorporating the effects of the forest transition under the MIROC, MRI-GCM, HadGEM, and GFDL scenarios was carried out using current and future forest variation, and then applied for 50-year forecast projection to the period of 2041 to 2050.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Reproduction of sediment deposition and prediction of 137Cs concentration in the major urban rivers of Tokyo

Mouri

2020

Sci Rep

Self Cite

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Radioactive caesium-137 (137 cs) can be used as a tracer to infer sediment dynamics due not only to its long radioactive half-life but also its affinity for fine sediment. A novel advanced interpolation assessment was conducted to examine radionuclide activity in terraced land covered with volcanic ash soil in Tokyo, Japan, which had a time-dependent input function and incorporated the effects of mixed-sediment particle dynamic behaviour on radioactive decay. In addition, transport parameters derived from chernobyl measurements were applied as predictors of the long-term contamination of the cardinal urban rivers by the fallout from the tokyo electric power fukushima Daiichi nuclear power Plant (FDNPP) accident in 2011. The behaviour of suspended sediment substances, incorporating the effects of deposition and pickup, was assessed using a mixed-sediment particle dynamics model. The concentrations of 137 Cs adsorbed on fine sediment particles of each size fraction were determined. Removal of 137 Cs from the cardinal urban river channel had significant effects on both long-term decline, including extreme flash flood events, and the dynamic and time-dependent behaviours of interspersed 137 Cs and sediment activity. A novel advanced interpolation assessment method was used to examine radionuclide activity in terraced land covered with volcanic ash soil in Tokyo, Japan. The assessment procedure has a time-dependent input function and incorporates the effects of mixedsediment particle dynamics on this time dependence. The results indicated that sediment and 137 cs concentrations could decline more rapidly than observed in the Fukushima and Chernobyl regions. This rate of decrease depended on terraces covered with volcanic ash soil, which incorporated the effects of fine sediment behaviour for particle adsorption. In addition, comparatively large impacts were observed during extreme flash flooding events, which were associated with the land cover of the major urban river catchments in Tokyo. This work provides a new perspective for understanding 137 cs behaviour associated with reproduction of sediment deposition and prediction of 137 cs concentration in the major urban rivers of Tokyo, incorporating the effects of baseline 137 cs behaviour with the impact of sediment particle adsorption in a volcanic ash soil-covered terrace. Radionuclides, including radioactive 137 Cs, released from the FDNPP accident following the earthquake and tsunami of 11 March 2011, have risen to critical mass through interspersed deposition on surfaces, mainly through rainfall and discharge into water systems. Radioactive contaminants have accumulated in unusual environments, such as the river channels of urban areas, including within the perimeter of Tokyo (Ministry of Education Culture Sports Science and Technology, 2014; Mouri et al., (2014a) 1 ; Yamashita et al., (2014) 2 ; Mouri, (2016a) 3). Researchers have been investigating and estimating the dynamic behaviour and long-term trends of radionuclides following the 1986 accident in Chernoby...

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The effects of future nationwide forest transition to discharge in the 21st century with regard to general circulation model climate change scenarios

Cited by 8 publications

References 50 publications

Forest Soil Bacteria: Diversity, Involvement in Ecosystem Processes, and Response to Global Change

Forest Soil Bacteria: Diversity, Involvement in Ecosystem Processes, and Response to Global Change

Runoff Responses to Climate and Land Use/Cover Changes under Future Scenarios

Reproduction of sediment deposition and prediction of 137Cs concentration in the major urban rivers of Tokyo

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