The Effects of High Stakes Educational Testing on Enrollments in an Era of Hyper-Expansion: Cross-National Evidence, 1960–2010

Abstract

How do national high-stakes exams affect educational expansion across the world? High-stakes exams are conventionally viewed as systems of exclusion that constrain enrollments. In this paper, we situate exams within a broader historical and institutional context and argue that the constraining effect of exams on educational enrollments is a recent phenomenon. Exam systems diffused globally at a time when schooling was a limited enterprise, linked to just a few occupational roles. The later emergence of more inclusive visions of education, culminating in the Education for All (EFA) movement, propelled rapid global educational expansion. In this context, national high-stakes exam systems institutionalize earlier logics of selective education and consequently blunt the impact of more recent expansionary norms. Using panel regression models and a newly constructed dataset of 142 countries from 1960 to 2010, we show that high-stakes exams are associated with lower enrollments. However, this association is strongest in recent years, and exams interact negatively with measures of international pro-educational norms and pressures on nation-states. These findings are consistent with our historical/institutional argument: Exams constrain enrollments in recent years, in part by rendering nations less responsive to global expansionary pressures.

Western Colonialism and World Society in National Education Systems: Global Trends in the Use of High-Stakes Exams at Early Ages, 1960 to 2010

“…These trends reflect a more general internal tension in globalizing conceptions of education that developed after World War II. As education became an increasingly central component of social stratification, countries faced pressures to create fair and meritocratic selection processes based on a standard academic curriculum; at the same time, education also came to be seen as a fundamental human right and universal entitlement (Furuta et al forthcoming).…”

“…The formal goal of international and national assessments is thus to improve access and equality in the provision of education, rather than to certify, stratify, or remove students from the school system as high-stakes exams do (Furuta et al forthcoming). Unlike high-stakes exams, national and international assessments are low-stakes tests that do not directly determine an individual student’s educational opportunities; instead, assessment tests hold schools and countries accountable for student outcomes, and test scores are rarely reported at the individual level (Ramirez, Schofer, and Meyer 2018).…”

“…Education is seen as a crucial mechanism for advancing human rights through its role in empowering individuals as actors, expanding their capabilities, and equalizing social conditions among various subgroups (e.g., race/ethnicity or gender groups) (Nussbaum 2013). High-stakes exams at early ages are diametrically opposed to this ideal, given that they routinely restrict substantial proportions of the student population from pursuing secondary education (Furuta et al forthcoming). A country’s commitment to individual rights also has been shown to delegitimate educational institutions like between-school tracking, which similarly restrict educational opportunities at higher levels (Furuta 2020).…”

“…1 As a result, many students in these countries are unable to continue their schooling at the secondary level. More generally, high-stakes exams at early ages have been shown to significantly restrict secondary enrollments; these constraining effects of high-stakes exams on educational expansion also have become stronger in more recent time periods, in spite of recent global pressures to increase educational access from the “Education for All” movement (Furuta, Schofer, and Wick forthcoming).…”

Exam-Retaking as a Source of Gender Stratification: The Case of Female Underrepresentation in Selective Colleges in Japan

“…The use of nationwide high-stakes testing, which relies on standardized test scores for admission, has increased in many countries (Furuta et al 2021;Högberg and Horn 2022;Verger et al 2019), especially in admissions to selective institutions. Although the high-stakes entrance exam system has not been implemented widely in US education, admissions to several selective public schools (often called magnet schools), such as New York City's Specialized High Schools, tend to use high-stakes testing.…”