The effects of invasive pests and pathogens on strategies for forest diversification

Macpherson, Morag F.; Kleczkowski, A.; Healey, John R.; Quine, Christopher P.; Hanley, Nick

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.02.003

Cited by 34 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 51 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…This therefore increases either the reduction in the optimal rotation length or the benefit from waiting for the timber to grow until the disease-free optimal rotation length before harvesting. (Our follow-up paper (Macpherson et al 2016b) details the formulation of density-dependent disease transmission in relation to tree diseases, but also gives an example of frequencydependent transmission and the effect this can have on disease dynamics within a forest. )…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effects of Disease on Optimal Forest Rotation: A Generalisable Analytical Framework

Macpherson

Kleczkowski

Healey

et al. 2016

Environ Resource Econ

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The arrival of novel pathogens and pests can have a devastating effect on the market values of forests. Calibrating management strategies/decisions to consider the effect of disease may help to reduce disease impacts on forests. Here, we use a novel generalisable, bioeconomic model framework, which combines an epidemiological compartmental model with a Faustmann optimal rotation length model, to explore the management decision of when to harvest a single rotation, even-aged, plantation forest under varying disease conditions. Sensitivity analysis of the rate of spread of infection and the effect of disease on the timber value reveals a key trade-off between waiting for the timber to grow and the infection spreading further. We show that the optimal rotation length, which maximises the net present value of the forest, is reduced when timber from infected trees has no value; but when the infection spreads quickly, and the value of timber from infected trees is non-zero, it can be optimal to wait until the disease-free optimal rotation length to harvest. Our original approach provides an exemplar framework showing how a bioeconomic model can be used to examine the effect of tree diseases on management strategies/decisions.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effects of Disease on Optimal Forest Rotation: A Generalisable Analytical Framework

Macpherson

Kleczkowski

Healey

et al. 2016

Environ Resource Econ

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Bio-economic modelling combines both biophysical and economic components (Flichman andAllen 2013, Kragt 2012) and can be used to predict optimal management strategies for crop growth in the presence of invasive species (Atallah et al 2018, Macpherson et al 2017, Carrasco et al 2010. In addition, Anderson et al (2017) use bio-economic models to identify cost-efficient eradication surveillance strategies.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Have actions taken to control fall armyworm reduced the economic cost experienced in Ghana?

2019

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The rapid spread of the invasive crop pest, the fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda), across Africa in recent years has attracted considerable interest, especially the effect on maize farmers. The purpose of this study is to understand and assess the economic costs of the fall armyworm invasion in Ghana under different control scenarios. Three different scenarios are modelled: one with no farmer applied control measures, one with limited control measures and one with proactive control measures that were used in Ghana in 2017. Maximum, minimum and mid-range estimates of losses are presented for the second and third scenarios. The study is based on data available from CABI surveys, the Ministry of Food and Agriculture in Ghana and FAOSTAT. Highlights • The model indicates that the coordinated control measures taken reduced the economic loss from an estimated mid-range of USD 25 M (min USD 19 M, max USD 31 M) to 10 M (min USD 3 M, max USD 16 M), a difference of approx. USD 15 M over 1 year.

show abstract

“…[49], which makes their impact difficult to model. Despite this, compartmental models have been successfully used to describe the spread and control of plant and forest pathogens [11,50,51].…”

Section: (B) Pathogensmentioning

confidence: 99%

One model to rule them all? Modelling approaches across OneHealth for human, animal and plant epidemics

Kleczkowski

Hoyle

McMenemy

2019

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

One hundred years after the 1918 influenza outbreak, are we ready for the next pandemic? This paper addresses the need to identify and develop collaborative, interdisciplinary and cross-sectoral approaches to modelling of infectious diseases including the fields of not only human and veterinary medicine, but also plant epidemiology. Firstly, the paper explains the concepts on which the most common epidemiological modelling approaches are based, namely the division of a host population into susceptible, infected and removed (SIR) classes and the proportionality of the infection rate to the size of the susceptible and infected populations. It then demonstrates how these simple concepts have been developed into a vast and successful modelling framework that has been used in predicting and controlling disease outbreaks for over 100 years. Secondly, it considers the compartmental models based on the SIR paradigm within the broader concept of a ‘disease tetrahedron’ (comprising host, pathogen, environment and man) and uses it to review the similarities and differences among the fields comprising the ‘OneHealth’ approach. Finally, the paper advocates interactions between all fields and explores the future challenges facing modellers. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes’. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control’.

show abstract

The effects of invasive pests and pathogens on strategies for forest diversification

Cited by 34 publications

References 51 publications

The Effects of Disease on Optimal Forest Rotation: A Generalisable Analytical Framework

The Effects of Disease on Optimal Forest Rotation: A Generalisable Analytical Framework

Have actions taken to control fall armyworm reduced the economic cost experienced in Ghana?

One model to rule them all? Modelling approaches across OneHealth for human, animal and plant epidemics

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About