The Effects of Kenya's ‘Smarter’ Input Subsidy Programme on Smallholder Behaviour and Incomes: Do Different Quasi‐experimental Approaches Lead to the Same Conclusions?

Abstract

Kenya joined the ranks of sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries implementing targeted input subsidy programmes (ISPs) for inorganic fertiliser and improved seed in 2007 with the establishment of the National Accelerated Agricultural Inputs Access Programme (NAAIAP). Although several features of NAAIAP were 'smarter' than other ISPs in the region, some aspects were less 'smart'. However, the efficacy of the programme, and the relationship between its design and effectiveness, have been little studied. This article uses nationwide survey data to estimate the effects of NAAIAP participation on Kenyan smallholders' cropping patterns, incomes, and poverty status. Unlike most previous studies of ISPs, a range of panel data-and propensity score-based methods are used to estimate the effects of NAAIAP. The article then compares these estimated effects across estimators and to the effects of other ISPs in SSA, and discusses the likely links between differences in programme designs and impacts. The results are robust to the choice of estimator and suggest that, despite substantial crowding out of commercial fertiliser demand, NAAIAP had sizeable impacts on maize production and poverty severity. NAAIAP's success in targeting resource-poor farmers and implementation

Effectiveness of fertilizer policy reforms to enhance food security in Kenya: a macro–micro simulation analysis

“…Since 2007, the Kenyan government subsidized fertilizers with the National Accelerated Agricultural Inputs Access Programme (NAAIAP). 2 Although subsidies increased fertilizer use (Mason et al 2017), they started to become a significant financial burden (Sheahan, Ariga, and Jayne 2016) as the government spends almost €27 million every year on support programmes. The increase in fertilizer use relied mostly on imports (Ariga and Jayne 2011).…”

Weather index insurance, agricultural input use, and crop productivity in Kenya

“…In terms of institutional factors, the intensity of fertilizer use increases with better access to agricultural extension. The public extension service in Kenya promotes the use of fertilizer in maize to improve food security (Mason et al, 2017). The effect of extension on maize seed investments is not statistically significant.…”

“…As already mentioned, almost all farmers in the sample use chemical fertilizer. The average fertilizer intensity of 68 kg/acre is relatively high if compared to African smallholder conditions in general, but lower than the 100 kg/acre that are recommended by the Kenyan Ministry of Agriculture (Mason et al, 2017). The national average fertilizer use in maize is 60 kg/acre, varying between 75 kg/acre in high-potential areas to below 10 kg/acre in the drier lowlands (Ariga et al, 2008).…”

“…Due to climate change, weather risk will further aggravate. African governments have tried to increase the use of fertilizer and other inputs through various policy approaches, including input market reforms and subsidies (Jayne et al, 2003;Jayne and Rashid, 2013;Mason et al, 2017). Another approach is providing insurance against weather risk, but the availability of agricultural insurance in developing countries remains limited.…”

Incentives, social learning and economic development : Experimental and quasi-experimental evidence from Uganda

“…Although the assumption cannot be tested directly, with several periods of data before the treatment it is possible to visually observe trends. A few authors have also tested for parallel trends prior to treatment by regressing the difference in the outcome variables between two periods preceding treatment implementation on a binary variable equal to one for treated observations at endline (see for example, Mason et al, 2017).…”