The effects of oil price shocks on output and inflation in China

Zhao, Lin; Zhang, Xun; Wang, Shouyang; Xu, Shanying

doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2014.11.017

Cited by 178 publications

(70 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…The results of assessing the impact of changes in prices of energy resources on the economy differ significantly in the various studies devoted to this issue. Thus, [51] states that the rise in oil prices had a negative impact on China's economy. At the same time, it was found in [52] that such an increase positively affected the Vietnamese stock market.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and Aspirations for Energy Independence: Sectoral Analysis of Uses of Natural Gas in Ukrainian Economy

et al. 2019

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The main objective of the research is to assess the ability of the Ukrainian economy and its individual industries to ensure, in the conditions of economic growth, a stable reduction of natural gas consumption and, consequently, to reduce dependence on its imports. Six types of relationships were identified between the change in sectoral added value and the change in the consumption of certain energy resources, in particular natural gas. The conditions are established under which the growth of sectoral added value is accompanied by a decrease in the consumption of certain energy resources. The index of sectoral efficiency of the use of certain energy resources was proposed and a model of the decomposition of the growth rate of this indicator was constructed. Quantitative indicators of measuring economic barriers on the way to introduction of energy-saving technologies are presented. Conditions under which economic growth is accompanied by a decrease in the level of dependence of the economy on imports of energy resources are modeled. The dynamics of natural gas consumption by sectors of the Ukrainian economy is analyzed. It is proved that reduction of natural gas consumption due to increased energy efficiency occurs mainly in industries with an average value of share of the cost of purchasing this energy in the total operating expenses. An estimation is undertaken of the possibility of achieving independence of the Ukrainian economy from the import of natural gas in different scenarios of changing main parameters that determine the probability of such an achievement.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and Aspirations for Energy Independence: Sectoral Analysis of Uses of Natural Gas in Ukrainian Economy

et al. 2019

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“…Very few studies have addressed various term-horizons in which oil shocks impact on the real economy. For example, Zhao, Zhang, Wang, and Xu (2016) investigated the effects of oil price shocks on output and inflation in China, using dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. They found that oil supply shocks, driven by political events, mainly produce short-term effects on China's output and inflation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How do oil price changes affect inflation in Central and Eastern European countries? A wavelet-based Markov switching approach

Živkov

Đurašković

Manić

2018

Baltic Journal of Economics

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This paper investigates how oil price changes affect consumer price inflation in eleven Central and Eastern European countries. We use a wavelet-based Markov switching approach in order to distinguish between the effects at different time horizons. We find that the transmission of oil price changes to inflation is relatively low in the Central and Eastern European countries as an increase in the oil price of 100% is followed by a rise in inflation of 1-6 percentage points. The strongest impact from rising oil price on inflation is found for the longer time-horizons for most of the countries, which means that the indirect spillover effect is more intensive than the direct one. Also, the results indicate that exchange rate is not a significant factor when oil shocks are transmitted towards inflation, except in the occasions when high depreciation occurs. Slovakia and Bulgaria are the countries which experience the highest and most consistent pass-through effect throughout the observed sample, and this may be due to these countries having some of the highest oil import/GDP ratios. ARTICLE HISTORY

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“…Katircioglu et al (2015), propose that there exists a statistically significant negative relation between oil prices and inflation for the OECD countries in general. Zhao et al (2016), evaluate four types of oil price shocks for an open economy by using dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model framework and propose that effects of the oil supply shocks caused by political instability have short term effects, while the remaining three types of shocks produce long-term effects on China's inflation. Salisu et al (2017), reports a positive relationship between oil price and inflation and the impact of oil prices on inflation is greater for the oil importing countries when compared with the oil exporting countries.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

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2019

IJEFR

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In this paper, the link between energy prices and price level is investigated from a historical perspective for the case of Ottoman Empire during the period 1885-1914. Although the unit root test results revealed that none of the variables are integrated of second or higher order, the findings of the unit root tests were conflicting. Therefore, to investigate the dynamic relations between energy prices and inflation, ARDL approach to cointegration is employed. The results of the bounds tests showed that energy prices and CPI were cointegrated. Furthermore, ARDL long-run results showed that a 1% change in inflation causes a 0.85% change in energy prices in same direction.

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The effects of oil price shocks on output and inflation in China

Cited by 178 publications

References 18 publications

Changes in Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and Aspirations for Energy Independence: Sectoral Analysis of Uses of Natural Gas in Ukrainian Economy

Changes in Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and Aspirations for Energy Independence: Sectoral Analysis of Uses of Natural Gas in Ukrainian Economy

How do oil price changes affect inflation in Central and Eastern European countries? A wavelet-based Markov switching approach

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