A central question in the debate regarding the legalization of marijuana in California is whether consumption would rise and by how much. In this report, we review the economics literature which provides insights regarding how consumption might change and why. A key finding of the review is that the current state of the literature is limited, having not yet fully explored how average consumption among existing users will change in response to changes in price and legal risks. However, information regarding the prevalence of marijuana, both in terms of new users as well as regular users, is available. A review of this literature is considered in terms of the responsiveness of marijuana initiation, regular use and heavy use to changes in the price of marijuana, enforcement risk, decriminalization and other legal risks. From this review it is clear that total consumption will rise in response to legalization due to increases in the number of new users, increases in the number of regular and heavy users, and probable increases in the duration in which marijuana is consumed for average users.
2
I. IntroductionA vast literature has developed over the past twenty years examining the etiology of and factors influencing marijuana consumption. A variety of disciplines have contributed to the development of this literature, including sociology, psychology, epidemiology, criminology, and economics, all emphasizing different factors that are important for influencing the decision to use marijuana. The economics literature, in particular, has focused on examining the relative importance of changes in price and income as determinants of the decision to use marijuana and length of use careers. Now, with the current debate regarding the legalization of marijuana in California, the findings from this economics literature in particular have found themselves at the center of the debate, as it lends important insights into what could happen to marijuana consumption in California if the voters decide to legalize marijuana. Legalization is expected to significantly influence the monetary price people have to pay to obtain marijuana, as currently with the prohibition, there is a black market risk premium that is added to the cost of providing marijuana to the market and this risk premium will no longer exist (see Caulkins 2010 for a careful description of this). So, with the expected decline in the price consumers have to pay for marijuana, how is consumption likely to change?The price elasticity of demand is typically used by economists to describe how consumption changes in response to a change in the price of any good or service. In particular, it tells you the percent change in consumption associated with a 1% change in price, and is derived by examining small changes along a single market demand curve. Market demand curves represent the aggregation of individual choices of quantities of the good consumed at various price points that could be observed in the market, holding all non-price determinants of consumption constant...