The Effects of Rice Export Policy on Regional Income, Prices and the Poor

Abstract

A 'bottom up' regional CGE model for Vietnam is constructed for 28 commodities and 8 regions (using a GSO input-output table for 2005). The model is used to analyze the recent dramatic increases in the world price of rice on the regional economy of Vietnam, and the Vietnamese policy response to limit exports. Although results show limited 'pro-poor' outcomes, the CGE model and a microsimulation (using 2006 VHLSS data) show that recent rice export quotas resulted in falls total rural savings as measured by the difference in total income less total production cost and consumption of rice.

Transition of Agricultural Mechanization, Agricultural Economy, Government Policy and Environmental Movement Related to Rice Production in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam after 2010

“…Therefore, we conclude that Vietnam needs to improve its mechanization of rice production in order to improve rice quality as well as productivity. Although there are several studies dealing with agricultural mechanization and the situation of rice producing farmer households in Vietnam [8], we were able to find very few studies which examined the relationship between the mechanization movement and the changing environment of farmers. We also could not find studies which utilized interviews with farmers related to mechanization habits or trends in the Mekong Delta.…”

A Comparison on Rice export between China and Vietnam: A constant market share analysis

“…Ever since, Vietnam shifted rapidly from being a net rice importer in 1968 to become the third largest world rice exporter since it has exported 1.4 million tons of rice in 1989 (Pingali et al,, 1997). Rice surplus for the urban and export markets mostly originated from the Mekong River Delta and Red River Delta regions, which recorded at over 90% of all rice production of the country while more than 90% of exported rice comes from the Mekong River Delta regions (Kompas et al, 2010).…”

Global market shocks and poverty in Vietnam: the case of rice

“…A few other studies have taken account of general equilibrium impacts (Ivanic and Martin, 2008; Kompas et al, 2010; Warr, 2008). Warr's Thailand study is an important comparison.…”

“…There are other differences between the two countries; notably, market‐driven development is a much newer phenomenon in Vietnam, so the efficient operation of product and factor markets (as assumed in the Thailand study) might face impediments in Vietnam's case. Moreover, Vietnam's policy response to the rise price surge included a brief ban on the signing of new export contracts (from March to May 2008), which by limiting domestic price increases, may have provided some regions and some poor households with a temporary shield against the full impact of the global price shock (Kompas et al, 2010).…”

“…11 11 As expected, the regional distribution of gains and losses is heavily influenced by the extent to which each region is a net “exporter” of rice. Kompas et al (2010) explore the regional distributions of gains and losses with an eight‐region CGE model; however, their paper does not specify whether labor and other markets clear across regions or between them, so comparisons with our findings are difficult. …”