The Effects of Social Distancing on Electricity Demand Considering Temperature Dependency

Abstract

To mitigate the spread of the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19), governments around the world have imposed social distancing policies ranging from minor social activity suspensions to full curfews. These social distancing policies have altered electricity consumption behaviors in numerous countries. Many governments imposed strict social distancing policies during a temperature transition season where the impacts of temperature variations are particularly important for the operation of the electric grid. This paper studies how strict social distancing policies affect the relationship between electricity demand and ambient temperature. We first review the expected short- and long-term impacts of social distancing on the electricity demand. We then present a case study on the electricity demand of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia during strict social distancing policies. The results of this case study suggest that strict social distancing policies result in a stronger correlation between temperature and electricity demand compared to previous years. Additionally, we observe a reduction in the time required for the electricity demand to respond to temperature changes. Power system regulators can use the results in this paper to better design energy policies. The results can also be used by power system operators to more accurately forecast electricity demands and avoid inefficient and insecure operation of the electric grid.

Global changes in electricity consumption during COVID-19

“…Understanding and anticipating the impacts of shocks like COVID-19 on the electricity sector is critical to maintaining grid reliability and building resilience to adverse events. Many recent works have attempted to estimate the decrease in consumption caused by the pandemic (Agdas and Barooah, 2020;Alhajeri et al, 2020;Alkhraijah et al, 2021;Bahmanyar et al, 2020;Cicala, 2020aCicala, , 2020bEdomah and Ndulue, 2020;EPIC, 2020;Eryilmaz et al, 2020;Halbrugge et al, 2021;Hauser et al, 2021;IEA, 2021;Jiang et al, 2021;Leach et al, 2020;Lopez Prol and O, 2020;Zachmann, 2020b, 2020a;Narajewski and Ziel, 2020;Percy and Mountain, 2020;Ruan et al, 2020;Santiago et al, 2021;Gillingham et al, 2020;Werth et al, 2020); however, they have been limited either by their timescale, geographic scope, modeling approach, and/or incomplete accounting of seasonal, weather, and temporal effects. Most other analyses are limited to individual countries or small groups of countries, particularly in the United States and Europe where high-resolution data are more readily available and only cover the initial stages of the pandemic.…”

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic to the Sustainability of the Energy Sector

“…Snow et al [86] found that a significant increase in household electricity consumption in Australia was directly related to the lockdowns. Also, the linkages between social distancing policy and ambient temperature and energy demand were identified in the study by Alkhraijah et al [87]. Chen et al [88] found that households used more energy during the pandemic, but only high-income households were more willing to pay for home energy management systems.…”

Electricity Markets during the Liberalization: The Case of a European Union Country

“…These explanatory variables have also been specified in electricity price functions in previous studies: the prices of primary energy sources with calculations of electricity price cost elasticities [40,41,[52][53][54], CO 2 emission coupon prices [24,[55][56][57] and variations in local air temperature [58][59][60].…”