The Effects of Southern Hemisphere Crop Production on Trade, Stocks, and Price Integration

Glauber, Joseph W.; Miranda, Mario J.

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-28201-5_4

Cited by 7 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Various other computational simulation modelling approaches might be useful for investigating telecoupled systems, but we restrict ourselves to these three approaches. We do this because these approaches have been widely used by ecologists, economists, and sustainability scientists to examine interactions between people and between humans and their environment at different levels and scales, particularly with respect to land use change and global food trade, e.g., [23][24][25]. We do not consider discrete event simulation modelling approaches here, for example, as they are typically used to represent operations-oriented processes (e.g., manufacturing) and have not widely been used to examine socioeconomic or coupled human and natural systems.…”

Section: Modelling Approaches For Telecouplingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Annual data are most often used because they are readily available, but data at finer resolutions are also occasionally used in agricultural models. For example, semi-annual data were used by Glauber and Miranda [25] to model cross-hemispheric shifts in agricultural production. P/GE models are commonly applied at the global [55,56], regional [57,58], and national [59,60] levels.…”

Section: Partial and General Equilibrium Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Integrating Modelling Approaches for Understanding Telecoupling: Global Food Trade and Local Land Use

Millington

Xiong

Peterson

et al. 2017

Land

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Abstract:The telecoupling framework is an integrated concept that emphasises socioeconomic and environmental interactions between distant places. Viewed through the lens of the telecoupling framework, land use and food consumption are linked across local to global scales by decision-making agents and trade flows. Quantitatively modelling the dynamics of telecoupled systems like this could be achieved using numerous different modelling approaches. For example, previous approaches to modelling global food trade have often used partial equilibrium economic models, whereas recent approaches to representing local land use decision-making have widely used agent-based modelling. System dynamics models are well established for representing aggregated flows and stores of products and values between distant locations. We argue that hybrid computational models will be useful for capitalising on the strengths these different modelling approaches each have for representing the various concepts in the telecoupling framework. However, integrating multiple modelling approaches into hybrid models faces challenges, including data requirements and uncertainty assessment. To help guide the development of hybrid models for investigating sustainability through the telecoupling framework here we examine important representational and modelling considerations in the context of global food trade and local land use. We report on the development of our own model that incorporates multiple modelling approaches in a modular approach to negotiate the trade-offs between ideal representation and modelling resource constraints. In this initial modelling our focus is on land use and food trade in and between USA, China and Brazil, but also accounting for the rest of the world. We discuss the challenges of integrating multiple modelling approaches to enable analysis of agents, flows, and feedbacks in the telecoupled system. Our analysis indicates differences in representation of agency are possible and should be expected in integrated models. Questions about telecoupling dynamics should be the primary driver in selecting modelling approaches, tempered by resource availability. There is also a need to identify appropriate modelling assessment and analysis tools and learn from their application in other domains.

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Section: Modelling Approaches For Telecouplingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Partial and General Equilibrium Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating Modelling Approaches for Understanding Telecoupling: Global Food Trade and Local Land Use

Millington

Xiong

Peterson

et al. 2017

Land

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“…The seasonal tendencies of soybean production and trade affect seasonal price patterns in the U.S. and Brazil soybean market [2]. Margarido et al [3] find that the "Law of the One Price" holds between U.S. and Brazil soybean prices in the long run, indicating that two prices are integrated.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The price pattern in the world soybean market is subject to changes in trade relations [2]. In 2010/11, the U.S. produced 90 million metric tons and exported 41 million metric tons of soybeans.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, finding evidence of the seasonal soybean price relationship is important to analyze the impact of trade policy on soybean exporting or importing countries. The price pattern in the world soybean market is subject to changes in trade relations [2]. In 2010/11, the U.S. produced 90 million metric tons and exported 41 million metric tons of soybeans.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Seasonal Soybean Price Transmission between the U.S. and Brazil Using the Seasonal Regime-Dependent Vector Error Correction Model

Soon

Whistance

2019

Sustainability

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Soybean production and trade in the U.S. and Brazil are seasonal. Our research question is whether the seasonal tendencies cause the price relationship between U.S. and Brazilian soybean prices. Therefore, the objective is to test for seasonality in the price transmission between the U.S. and Brazil soybean prices using the seasonal regime-dependent vector error correction model (VECM). Our results show that the speed of the adjustment for the U.S. soybean price in the first half of the year is greater than the speed of the adjustment for the Brazilian soybean price. However, the pattern of their responses becomes the reverse in the second half of the year. The component share calculated by the result of the VECM with seasonal effects indicates that the U.S. dominates the world soybean market during the second half of the year while Brazil is dominant in the soybean market in the first half of the year. These results give us an important finding that we could not find using the VECM without seasonal effects. Finally, our results imply that the seasonal pattern of production in the U.S. and Brazil could cause the sustainability of the supply chain in the world soybean market.

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The adverse consequences of global harvest and weather disruptions on economic activity

Winne

Peersman

2021

Nat. Clim. Chang.

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The Effects of Southern Hemisphere Crop Production on Trade, Stocks, and Price Integration

Cited by 7 publications

References 16 publications

Integrating Modelling Approaches for Understanding Telecoupling: Global Food Trade and Local Land Use

Integrating Modelling Approaches for Understanding Telecoupling: Global Food Trade and Local Land Use

Seasonal Soybean Price Transmission between the U.S. and Brazil Using the Seasonal Regime-Dependent Vector Error Correction Model

The adverse consequences of global harvest and weather disruptions on economic activity

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