The effects of temperature on short-term mortality risk in Kuwait: A time-series analysis

Alahmad, Barrak; Shakarchi, Ahmed F.; AlSeaidan, Mohammad; Fox, Mary A.

doi:10.1016/j.envres.2019.01.029

Cited by 42 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…1). In the instances where a meteorological station had a missing value, observations from other stations were used to calculate the average value for that day (Tong et al 2012;Al-Taiar and Thalib 2014;Alahmad et al 2019). For air pollution parameters, daily air pollution data (PM 10 ) (μg/m 3 ) and surface O 3 (ppb) were obtained from DOE continuous air quality monitoring stations (Fig.…”

Section: Mortality Meteorological and Air Pollutant Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

The association between temperature and cause-specific mortality in the Klang Valley, Malaysia

Yatim

Latif

Sofwan

et al. 2021

Environ Sci Pollut Res

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This study aims to examine the relationship between daily temperature and mortality in the Klang Valley, Malaysia over the period 2006 -2015. A quasi-Poisson generalized linear model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to estimate the association between mean temperature and mortality categories (natural, cardiovascular, and respiratory disease). Particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter below than 10 micrometer (PM 10 ) and surface ozone (O 3 ) has been adjusted as a potential confounding factor. Both cold and heat effects were associated with mortality categories. The relative risks of natural mortality associated with an extreme cold temperature (1st percentile of temperature, 25.2 °C) and an extreme hot temperature (99th percentile of temperature, 30.2 °C) relative to the minimum mortality temperature (28.2 °C) were 1.17 (95% con dence interval (CI): 0.97, 1.41) and 1.11 (95% CI: 0.93, 1.32) for lag 0-21, respectively. Heat effects were immediate whereas cold effects were delayed and lasted longer. People with respiratory diseases, the elderly and women were the most vulnerable groups when it came to the effects of extremely high temperatures. The extreme temperatures did not dramatically change the temperature-mortality risk estimates made before and after adjustments for air pollutant (PM 10 and O 3 ) levels.

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Section: Mortality Meteorological and Air Pollutant Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

The association between temperature and cause-specific mortality in the Klang Valley, Malaysia

Yatim

Latif

Sofwan

et al. 2021

Environ Sci Pollut Res

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“…With the current rate of climate change, projections of future temperatures towards the end of this century in the region will possibly exceed the threshold of human adaptability [18]. Our previous studies in Kuwait revealed an alarming increase in the overall mortality risk and cardiovascular mortality risk among vulnerable subpopulations during days of extremely high ambient temperatures measured from monitoring stations across the country [19,20]. Kuwait is also a small urban country; the vast majority of the population lives in urban and suburban neighborhood units around the Kuwait City metropolitan area [21].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Spatial Distribution of Land Surface Temperatures in Kuwait: Urban Heat and Cool Islands

Alahmad

Tomasso

Al-Hemoud

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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The global rise of urbanization has led to the formation of surface urban heat islands and surface urban cool islands. Urban heat islands have been shown to increase thermal discomfort, which increases heat stress and heat-related diseases. In Kuwait, a hyper-arid desert climate, most of the population lives in urban and suburban areas. In this study, we characterized the spatial distribution of land surface temperatures and investigated the presence of urban heat and cool effects in Kuwait. We used historical Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra satellite 8-day composite land surface temperature (LST) from 2001 to 2017. We calculated the average LSTs of the urban/suburban governorates and compared them to the average LSTs of the rural and barren lands. We repeated the analysis for daytime and nighttime LST. During the day, the temperature difference (urban/suburban minus versus governorates) was −1.1 °C (95% CI; −1.2, −1.00, p < 0.001) indicating a daytime urban cool island. At night, the temperature difference (urban/suburban versus rural governorates) became 3.6 °C (95% CI; 3.5, 3.7, p < 0.001) indicating a nighttime urban heat island. In light of rising temperatures in Kuwait, this work can inform climate change adaptation efforts in the country including urban planning policies, but also has the potential to improve temperature exposure assessment for future population health studies.

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“…Studies have found that extreme temperatures in Kuwait are associated with a doubling to tripling of mortality risk, with unacclimatized migrant workers and those with cardiovascular diseases at highest risk (Alahmad et al 2019(Alahmad et al , 2020a(Alahmad et al , 2020c. We know of no similar studies in other countries in the Arabian Peninsula.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and health in Kuwait: temperature and mortality projections under different climatic scenarios

Alahmad

Vicedo‐Cabrera

Chen³

et al. 2022

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Background–It is uncertain what climate change could bring to populations and countries in the hot desert environment of the Arabian Peninsula. Not only because they are already hot, countries in this region also have unique demographic profiles, with migrant populations potentially more vulnerable and constituting a large share of the population. In Kuwait, two-thirds of the population are migrant workers and record-high temperatures are already common. Objective–We quantified the temperature-related mortality burdens in Kuwait in the mid- (2050-2059) and end-century (2090-2099) decades under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and extreme (SSP5-8.5) climate change scenarios. Methods–We fitted time series distributed lag non-linear models to estimate the baseline temperature-mortality relationship which was then applied to future daily mean temperatures from the latest available climate models to estimate decadal temperature-mortality burdens under the two scenarios. Results–By mid-century, the average temperature in Kuwait is predicted to increase by 1.80°C (SSP2-4.5) to 2.57°C (SSP5-8.5), compared to a 2000-2009 baseline. By the end of the century, we could see an increase of up to 5.54°C. In a moderate scenario, climate change would increase heat-related mortality by 5.1% (95% empirical confidence intervals [eCI]: 0.8, 9.3) by end-century, whereas an extreme scenario increases heat-related mortality by 11.7% (2.7, 19.0). Heat-related mortality for non-Kuwaiti migrant workers could increase by 15.1% (4.6, 22.8). For every 100 deaths in Kuwait, 13.6 (-3.6, 25.8) could be attributed to heat driven by climate change by the end of the century. Conclusion–Climate change induced warming, even under more optimistic mitigation scenarios, may markedly increase heat-related mortality in Kuwait. Those who are already vulnerable, like migrant workers, could borne a larger impact from climate change.

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The effects of temperature on short-term mortality risk in Kuwait: A time-series analysis

Cited by 42 publications

References 49 publications

The association between temperature and cause-specific mortality in the Klang Valley, Malaysia

The association between temperature and cause-specific mortality in the Klang Valley, Malaysia

Spatial Distribution of Land Surface Temperatures in Kuwait: Urban Heat and Cool Islands

Climate change and health in Kuwait: temperature and mortality projections under different climatic scenarios

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