2023
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.4634430
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The Effects of the Dobbs Decision on Fertility

Daniel Dench,
Mayra Pineda-Torres,
Caitlin Knowles Myers
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Cited by 6 publications
(4 citation statements)
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“…Based on data from the CDC, birth rates in the first 6 months of 2023 have risen by an average of 2.3% in states enforcing total abortion bans compared to states where abortion rights remain protected, amounting to approximately 32,000 additional annual births resulting from Dobbs abortion bans. 21 The effect of Dobbs on health care dynamics and whether vasectomies will mitigate the changing birth rates remains to be seen.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…Based on data from the CDC, birth rates in the first 6 months of 2023 have risen by an average of 2.3% in states enforcing total abortion bans compared to states where abortion rights remain protected, amounting to approximately 32,000 additional annual births resulting from Dobbs abortion bans. 21 The effect of Dobbs on health care dynamics and whether vasectomies will mitigate the changing birth rates remains to be seen.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…However, initial studies have found that all states outlawing abortion have had an increase in births following Dobbs , suggesting that the reproductive landscape has uniformly changed in states with similar abortion laws. 21 Moving forward, it will be crucial to understand whether this interest in vasectomies is sustained nationally, and if these men have different levels of vasectomy regret or increased demand for vasectomy reversals.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…This necessitates dropping some states in datasets for which those states do not appear in every year. SDID has been shown in some contexts to outperform two-way fixed effects models based on having superior power and insensitivity in power to selection of the pre-treatment period by the analyst (Dench et al, 2024). In this case this advantage may be balanced against the need to drop some states from the some analytic samples.…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…We provide the first empirical evidence by exploiting newly released provisional state resident birth counts (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics, 2023) to estimate how births are changing in ban states relative to states where abortion access has not been restricted or threatened since the Dobbs decision. We registered a pre-analysis plan and code at Open Science Framework in October 2023, before the release of the 2nd quarter of provisional birth data, in which we used a simulated power analysis in the pre-period following Black et al (2022) to ensure that the method we choose for analysis is well-suited to detect e↵ects within the range of what may be expected (Dench and Pineda-Torres, 2023). Based on the results and analysis plan, we utilize Arkhangelsky et al's (2021) Synthetic Di↵erence-in-Di↵erences (SDID) using bootstrap inference, which we found always provides for smaller minimum detectable e↵ects (MDE) than two-way fixed e↵ects (TWFE) with cluster robust standard errors.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%