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iForest -Biogeosciences and Forestry
IntroductionFire is a major disturbance impacting the Mediterranean landscape (Rundel 1998). In recent decades its incidence has increased dramatically in southern Europe (Rego 1992, Moreno 1999, Pausas et al. 2008. The Portuguese territory is characterized by a Mediterranean climate and a rugged topography. Moreover, the Portuguese vegetation cover is mostly evergreen and drought resistant. The country is thus prone to vegetation fires. Recent demographic, socio-economic and climatic trends (e.g., Mather & Pereira 2006, Pereira et al. 2002 have further contributed to the country's vulnerability to wildfires. In Portugal, wildfire is the most important agent of land cover change (Pereira & Santos 2003). In fact, in the period extending from 1975 to 2007 the total burned area approximated 3.8 · 10 6 hectares, representing 40% of the country's area (Marques et al. 2011a).In Portugal, around 90% of the total forest land is managed by private landowners (DGRF 2006) and most stands are monospecific or dominated by one species. Eucalypt is the most important forest species in terms of area as it extends over 8.12 · 10 3 ha, corresponding to 26% of the country's forestland (ICNF 2013). Further, it provides key raw material to the export driven pulp and paper industry (about 5.75 million m 3 of pulpwood per year -DGRF 2007). Wildfires constrain the economic viability of eucalypt in commercial forestry and the competitiveness of this industry (Nogueira 1990, Moreira et al. 2001. The development of forest plans that may mitigate wildfire impacts on the profitability of eucalypt management scheduling is thus a key factor to the sustainability of this forestry sub-sector. This prompted the research of models to assess wildfire occurrence probability in eucalypt plantations as a function of variables that may be controlled by forest managers. The forestry literature has associated the term risk with the probability of occurrence of a natural hazard (González et al. 2006, Jactel et al. 2009. In this research, we will refer to risk as the probability of a stand to be affected by a wildfire (i.e., probability of burning) if an ignition exists ). Thus, rather than modeling fire ignition probability, the focus of this research is on modeling at stand level the probability of wildfire occurrence at stand level. This is understood as a spatial process related to forest structure as potential fire spread is impacted by fuel presence/composition (Fernandes 2009).In Portugal, former studies have focused on the characterization of wildfire ignition or of wildfire risk as a function of environmental or socioeconomic variables (Vasconcelos et al. 2001, Pereira & Santos 2003, Nunes et al. 2005, Catry et al. 2008, Marques et al. 2011a. It was demonstrated that in general wildfire impacts depend on the forest cover types where they occur (Moreira et al. 2001, Godinho-Ferreira et al. 2005, Nunes et al. 2005. The characterization of these impacts on eucalypt plantations was addressed recently by Fernande...