The Efficacy of Ideographic Models for Geographical Offender Profiling

Canter, David; Hammond, Laura; Youngs, Donna E.; Juszczak, Piotr

doi:10.1007/s10940-012-9186-6

Cited by 26 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Consequently, it is necessary to develop specific decay functions for each spatial zone, or at least do classifications from cities with similar characteristics [19]. On the other hand, regarding the sample, the decay distances by the same aggressor are consistent, that's why, more than generalizing, what matters is to individualize these functions in criminal investigations [26].…”

Section: Geographical Profiling Techniquesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Review: Principles of Geographical Profiling

Soria¹,

Villalba²

2017

Forensic Biomechanics

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Geographical profiling has been developed within the scientific community as a useful criminal investigation method. Its application in violent crimes has demanded a theoretical review and a valuation about the methodology used until now. This article offers a review of the basic concepts of geographical profiling and its evolution over time. To do that, there is an analysis of the main sustaining theories, such as environmental criminology or the circle theory and the main tools developed as computer software. Finally, it also covers a critical review about geographical profiling and its possible developments in the future.

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Section: Geographical Profiling Techniquesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Review: Principles of Geographical Profiling

Soria¹,

Villalba²

2017

Forensic Biomechanics

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“…Offender profiling is a methodology which is used in profiling unknown criminals or offenders. The purpose of offender profiling is to identify the socio-demographic characteristics of an offender based on information available at the crime scene (Mokros & Alison, 2002;Canter et al, 2013). Association rule mining discovers the items in databases which occur frequently and present them as rules.…”

Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fuzzy based binary feature profiling for modus operandi analysis

Chamikara

Galappaththi

Yapa

et al. 2016

PeerJ Computer Science

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It is a well-known fact that some criminals follow perpetual methods of operations known as modi operandi. Modus operandi is a commonly used term to describe the habits in committing crimes. These modi operandi are used in relating criminals to crimes for which the suspects have not yet been recognized. This paper presents the design, implementation and evaluation of a new method to find connections between crimes and criminals using modi operandi. The method involves generating a feature matrix for a particular criminal based on the flow of events of his/her previous convictions. Then, based on the feature matrix, two representative modi operandi are generated: complete modus operandi and dynamic modus operandi. These two representative modi operandi are compared with the flow of events of the crime at hand, in order to generate two other outputs: completeness probability (CP) and deviation probability (DP). CP and DP are used as inputs to a fuzzy inference system to generate a score which is used in providing a measurement for the similarity between the suspect and the crime at hand. The method was evaluated using actual crime data and ten other open data sets. In addition, comparison with nine other classification algorithms showed that the proposed method performs competitively with other related methods proving that the performance of the new method is at an acceptable level.

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“…Rossmo (2000) obtained the search cost as an offense domain where investigation should be focused. Canter et al (2013) and Snook, Taylor, and Bennell (2005) used a search-cost variation that computes the percentage of overlaid grid cells to be searched to find the offender's home. For geoprofiles created by raster-based journey-to-crime functions, this study obtains the search cost by computing the percentage of the highest profile area automatically generated from each series, over the total hunting area.…”

Section: Model Accuracy Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Nevertheless, few studies (e.g., Snook, Taylor, and Bennell 2005;Kent, Leitner, and Curtis 2006;Canter et al 2013) have evaluated CGP accuracy, and all have analyzed data from Western cities. Because of the lack of reported data from less developed non-Western nations, there has emerged an imbalance in our understanding of global CGP performance.…”

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confidence: 99%

Evaluating the Accuracy and Effectiveness of Criminal Geographic Profiling Methods: The Case of Dandora, Kenya

Mburu

Helbich

2014

The Professional Geographer

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Criminal geographic profiling (CGP) prioritizes offender search, extensively reducing the resources expended in criminal investigations. The utility of CGP has, however, remained unclear when variations in environmental characteristics and offense type are introduced. This study evaluates several CGP strategies with data from Dandora, a small but densely populated suburb of Nairobi, Kenya. The research employs error distance and search-cost measures to determine CGP accuracy. Characterized by much shorter journeys to crime than those observed in Western cities, this study discovers significant applicability of CGP strategies in prioritizing offender searches. The negative exponential CGP strategy is identified to generate the most accurate geo-profiles. Key Words: crime analysis, criminal geographic profiling, Nairobi (Kenya), offender travel, serial offense. (CGP) , , CGP (Dandora) , CGP CGP , , , CGP CGP , : , , ( ), ,La construcción de perfiles criminales en plano geográfico (CGP, según el acrónimo inglés) da prioridad a la búsqueda del delincuente, disminuyendo así notablemente los recursos que se gastan en investigaciones criminales. Sin embargo, la utilidad de los CGP sigue siendo poco clara cuando se le incorporan las variaciones en las características ambientales y el tipo de delito. Este estudio evalúa varias estrategias de CGP con datos obtenidos en Dandora, un pequeño aunque densamente poblado suburbio de Nairobi, Kenia. La investigación utiliza medidas de error de distancia y costo de la búsqueda para determinar la exactitud del CGP. Caracterizado por viajes al lugar del crimen mucho más cortos de lo que se observa en las ciudades occidentales, en este estudio se descubre una aplicabilidad significativa de estrategias del CGP para priorizar la búsqueda de delincuentes. La estrategia CGP exponencial negativa se identifica como la que genera los geo-perfiles más exactos. Palabras clave: análisis del crimen, perfil geográfico criminal, Nairobi (Kenia), recorrido delincuencial, delito seriado.

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The Efficacy of Ideographic Models for Geographical Offender Profiling

Cited by 26 publications

References 36 publications

Review: Principles of Geographical Profiling

Review: Principles of Geographical Profiling

Fuzzy based binary feature profiling for modus operandi analysis

Evaluating the Accuracy and Effectiveness of Criminal Geographic Profiling Methods: The Case of Dandora, Kenya

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