The Efficacy of Reservoir Flow Regulation for Cooling Migration Temperature for Sockeye Salmon in the Nechako River Watershed of British Columbia

Macdonald, J. S.; Morrison, John R.; Patterson, David A.

doi:10.1080/02755947.2012.675946

Cited by 31 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…They suggest looking at the capacity of a model to predict a threshold exceedance instead of solely focusing on the traditional best fit. Given the fact that in many systems, thermal forecasts are issued in order to keep water temperature below a target threshold [13,15,39] the evaluation of threshold prediction capacity of the forecasting system is essential to assess its usefulness. Hence, in addition to the MCRPS, the Brier Score (BS; Equation (14)) [40] was calculated as:…”

Section: Forecasts Verification and Explicit Consideration Of Uncertamentioning

confidence: 99%

Water Temperature Ensemble Forecasts: Implementation Using the CEQUEAU Model on Two Contrasted River Systems

Ouellet-Proulx

St‐Hilaire

Boucher

2017

Water

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Abstract:In some hydrological systems, mitigation strategies are applied based on short-range water temperature forecasts to reduce stress caused to aquatic organisms. While various uncertainty sources are known to affect thermal modeling, their impact on water temperature forecasts remain poorly understood. The objective of this paper is to characterize uncertainty induced to water temperature forecasts by meteorological inputs in two hydrological contexts. Daily ensemble water temperature forecasts were produced using the CEQUEAU model for the Nechako (regulated) and Southwest Miramichi (natural) Rivers for 1-5-day horizons. The results demonstrate that a larger uncertainty is propagated to the thermal forecast in the unregulated river (0.92-3.14 • C) than on the regulated river (0.73-2.29 • C). Better performances were observed on the Nechako with a mean continuous ranked probability score (MCRPS) <0.85 • C for all horizons compared to the Southwest Miramichi (MCRPS ≈ 1 • C). While informing the end-user on future thermal conditions, the ensemble forecasts provide an assessment of the associated uncertainty and offer an additional tool to river managers for decision-making.

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Section: Forecasts Verification and Explicit Consideration Of Uncertamentioning

confidence: 99%

Water Temperature Ensemble Forecasts: Implementation Using the CEQUEAU Model on Two Contrasted River Systems

Ouellet-Proulx

St‐Hilaire

Boucher

2017

Water

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“…It was also found that water temperature was commonly observed to decrease or not change as a result of increased flow magnitude; this is most likely due to site-specific climatic and reservoir characteristics and the vertical position of the draw-off valve used during flow modification. One study (Macdonald, Morrison & Patterson, 2012) found that draw-off level from the reservoir was a significant factor in determining downstream temperature. The potential for temperature modification through reservoir flow operation (see Olden & Naiman (2010) for discussion) is evident, which may be important given the crucial influence of temperature on biota in freshwater systems (Cummins, 1974;Beschta et al, 1987;Webb et al, 2008) and the significant impact of reservoirs on downstream thermal regimes (Petts, 1984;Dickson, Carrivick & Brown, 2012).…”

Section: Qualitative and Quantitative Flow-ecosystem Response Relatiomentioning

confidence: 99%

A critical analysis of regulated river ecosystem responses to managed environmental flows from reservoirs

et al. 2014

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Summary The flow regime of a river is fundamental in determining its ecological characteristics. Impoundment of rivers has been documented to severely impact the natural flow regime, resulting in abiotic and biotic changes in downstream ecosystems. Contemporary water legislation is driving increasing concern among environmentalists and water resource managers with respect to how these impacts can be mitigated. This has stimulated research aimed at assessing the relationship between reservoir outflow modification (i.e. managed environmental flows) and downstream ecosystem responses. We carried out a critical review and synthesis of the global literature concerning post‐impoundment reservoir outflow modification and associated downstream biotic and abiotic responses. Seventy‐six studies published between 1981 and 2012 were analysed. In contrast to previous studies of this subject, we systematically assessed the methodological quality of research to identify strengths and weaknesses of the approaches. We also undertook a novel quantification of ecosystem responses to flow modification, thus enabling identification of priorities for future research. We identified that: (i) there was a research bias towards North American and Western European studies; (ii) the majority of studies reported changes in flow magnitude (e.g. artificial floods) and primarily focused on traditionally monitored ecological groups (e.g. fish); (iii) relationships between flow, biota (e.g. macroinvertebrates) and water quality (e.g. electrical conductivity and suspended solids concentration) were evident, demonstrating the potential for managed environmental flows to manipulate river ecosystems; (iv) site‐specific factors (e.g. location, climate) are likely to be important as some ecosystem responses were inconsistent between studies (e.g. fish movement in response to increases in flow magnitude); and (v) quality of study design, methodological and analytical techniques varied, and these factors may have contributed to the reported variability of ecosystem response. To advance scientific understanding and guide future management of regulated flow regimes, we highlight a pressing need for: (i) diversification of study locations as well as flow modification and ecosystem response types assessed; (ii) a focus on understanding flow–ecosystem response relationships at regional scales; (iii) further quantitative studies to enable robust statistical analyses in future meta‐analyses; and (iv) robust monitoring of flow experiments and the use of contemporary statistical techniques to extract maximum knowledge from ecological response data.

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“…Variation in temperature-related survivorship is a serious conservation concern, and fisheries management could certainly benefit from incorporating this knowledge when setting population-specific spawning escapement targets (Holt & Peterman, 2006;Macdonald et al ., 2010). In addition, improving habitat management of spawning areas by protecting cool water flow and controlling water levels where possible may help offset the effects of climate warming in some areas (Healey, 2011;Macdonald et al ., 2012). Overall, when considering the long-term viability of this important resource, it will remain important to retain genotypic and phenotypic variability within the species, especially considering the unpredictable effects of environmental stochasticity and climate change.…”

Section: F U T U R E R E S E a R C H A N D M A Nag E M E N T I M P L mentioning

confidence: 99%

Provenance matters: thermal reaction norms for embryo survival among sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka populations

Whitney

Hinch

Patterson

2013

Journal of Fish Biology

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Differences in thermal tolerance during embryonic development in Fraser River sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka were examined among nine populations in a controlled common‐garden incubation experiment. Forcing embryonic development at an extreme temperature (relative to current values) of 16° C, representing a future climate change scenario, significantly reduced survival compared to the more ecologically moderate temperature of 10° C (55% v. 93%). Survival at 14° C was intermediate between the other two temperatures (85%). More importantly, this survival response varied by provenance within and between temperature treatments. Thermal reaction norms showed an interacting response of genotype and environment (temperature), suggesting that populations of O. nerka may have adapted differentially to elevated temperatures during incubation and early development. Moreover, populations that historically experience warmer incubation temperatures at early development displayed a higher tolerance for warm temperatures. In contrast, thermal tolerance does not appear to transcend life stages as adult migration temperatures were not related to embryo thermal tolerance. The intra‐population variation implies potential for thermal tolerance at the species level. The differential inter‐population variation in thermal tolerance that was observed suggests, however, limited adaptive potential to thermal shifts for some populations. This infers that the intergenerational effects of increasing water temperatures may affect populations differentially, and that such thermally mediated adaptive selection may drive population, and therefore species, persistence.

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The Efficacy of Reservoir Flow Regulation for Cooling Migration Temperature for Sockeye Salmon in the Nechako River Watershed of British Columbia

Cited by 31 publications

References 38 publications

Water Temperature Ensemble Forecasts: Implementation Using the CEQUEAU Model on Two Contrasted River Systems

Water Temperature Ensemble Forecasts: Implementation Using the CEQUEAU Model on Two Contrasted River Systems

A critical analysis of regulated river ecosystem responses to managed environmental flows from reservoirs

Provenance matters: thermal reaction norms for embryo survival among sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka populations

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