The electoral consequences of two great crises

Abstract

Who benefits from deep economic crises: the left, the right or neither? On the basis of evidence from elections in 1929–1933 and 2008–2013 in all states that were democracies in both periods, it is argued in this article that the electoral consequences of the Great Depression and the Great Recession were surprisingly similar: in both periods, right‐wing parties were at first more successful than left‐wing parties, although this effect only lasted for a few years. The manner in which a crisis develops over time should be taken into account when examining the effects of deep economic downturns on the electoral fortunes of the left and the right.

The Political Consequences of the Financial and Economic Crisis in Europe: Electoral Punishment and Popular Protest

“…In other words, they may turn to the centre‐left, if the government was on the centre‐right, or vice versa. Contrary to the analysis reported by Lindvall (), I could not find a systematic pattern of swings to the left or to the right. Whoever governed was punished – whether the government was on the centre‐left or on the centre‐right.…”

The Arc of Neoliberalism

“…Despite the election of Obama, for example, an enduring new Democratic coalition did not materialize. Conversely, despite the conservative victories in 2010, neither British nor American voters were ready to roll back the welfare state altogether (Bartels 2011, Gamble 2009, Lindvall 2011. There was anger but little real revolutionary fervor.…”

The Restructuring of the Western European Party Space in the Crisis: A Comparative Study of Austria, France and Germany

“…Indeed, it is interesting to see whether the crisis results in issue-specific moves to the right or the left. Some observers suggested that, in the short run, parties from the right will gain votes and attract more voters, but that, in the longer run, we may expect to find a stronger move towards the left (Lindvall 2014). As indicated in the methods' section, the average position on a given issue may take values between −1 to +1.…”