The Elephant Curve of Global Inequality and Growth

Abstract

We present new evidence on global inequality and growth since 1980 using the World and Wealth Income Database. We plot the curve of cumulated growth from 1980 to 2016 by percentile of the global distribution of income per adult. This curve has an elephant shape due to high growth rates at the median (fast growth in China and India), modest growth rates above the median, and explosive growth rates at the top. We project the evolution of global inequality between now and 2050 combining projected macro growth rates and within country inequality evolution based on past trends.

Will the regional concentration of tertiary education persist? The case of Europe in a period of rising participation

“…In terms of overall numbers, these are only a few regions and could therefore be characterized as outliers, but, if taken at face value, it appears that for a small subset of regions, the usual pattern of saturation does not apply. This tendency is similar to that observed in recent findings on the dynamics of income (Alvaredo et al, 2018;Milanovic, 2013), and it further suggests that clusters of regions (sometimes termed 'clubs'; e.g., Borsi & Metiu, 2015) 6 tend to show similar behaviours based on their initial starting point and spatial aggregation, as partly found by von Lyncker and Thoennessen (2017).…”

“…Therefore, we conclude that whilst low-level regions are catching up and high-level regions are mostly stagnant, the very top regions appear to be breaking away from the rest. These trends parallel those of income dynamics globally (Alvaredo, Chancel, Piketty, Saez, & Zucman, 2018;Milanovic, 2013), and are consistent with the recent literature focussing on overall economic performance of EU regions (e.g., Iammaringo, Rodriguez-Pose, & Storper, 2018), where a few highly developed and innovative regions have been identified as outperforming most other regions.…”

A Fair Governance: On Inequality, Power and Democracy

“…Again, this gives a consistent picture where democracies allow for economic growth driven by free and participated markets but with only partial redistribution. On a global scale, detailed studies on inequality show a so-called elephant curve (Alvaredo et al 2018;Milanovic 2016), with low-middle income growth for the lowest income percentiles, low income growth for the middle-upper percentiles, and top income growth levels reserved to a small minority of top incomes. This data suggests two perspectives on the relation between market economy and democracies, democratic policies seem to be inefficient in correcting wealth concentration, but also high levels of wealth and power concentration seem to be able to change the policy priorities of democracies.…”

Institutional market reforms in Russia and China through the lenses of Polanyi’s double movement

“…In China, at the very beginning, the main role in the reform process was played by the Chinese Communist Party, and its leading role is still being maintained. Without taking this into account, it is impossible to understand the success of the transformation carried out in China [54,55]. In Russia, on the contrary, the role of the political factor was not immediately realised.…”

“…Before proceeding to the analysis of the self-defense mechanisms against expansion of the market economy in Russian and Chinese societies, consider the inequality indicators in Russia and China in the period of market reforms. Let us turn to the latest statistics from a group of researchers working together with T. Piketty [54]. They show that the dramatic economic transformations in Russia and China have resulted in substantial increases in inequality.…”