The emergence of Sub-Replacement Family Size Ideals in Europe

Goldstein, Joshua R.; Lutz, Wolfgang; Testa, Maria

doi:10.1023/b:popu.0000020962.80895.4a

Cited by 330 publications

(296 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…The mean intended family size is also concentrated at around two children in all European countries, with a notable exception of Austria and Germany, which show, according to some surveys, low ideal and intended family size (Goldstein et al 2003). The temporal trend is marked by a remarkable stability with the exception of Greece and Portugal, where an abrupt and pervasive decline in family size ideals has been observed between 2006 and 2011.…”

Section: Fertility Intentionsmentioning

confidence: 92%

Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries

Basten

Sobotka

Zeman

et al. 2014

World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries AbstractThis paper discusses results of the global survey of experts on the future of low fertility in low-fertility countries. The survey was coordinated by the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital as a part of an effort to produce global argumentbased population projections by age, sex and level of education. First we give an overview of fertility changes in major low-fertility regions. Next we outline main theoretical arguments and review a wide range of factors contributing to fertility change and variation in contemporary low-fertility settings. Subsequently, we present survey results based on 184 assessments of over 170 experts analysing 41 countries with currently low or aroundreplacement fertility and Israel. These experts provided forecasts of period total fertility rate (TFR) in 2030 and 2050, estimated 80% confidence interval of their forecast and assessed the validity and potential impact on fertility of 46 factors. We also compare expert-derived projections of the TFR trends with the forecasts formulated by the UN World Population Prospects in 2010. The survey results in combination with the feedback provided by the invited experts then serve as a basis for formulating a set of projection scenarios for all low fertility countries up until 2050, which are additionally expanded (in a simpler form) through 2200. We present these scenarios and discuss past changes in fertility differences by level of education and their potential future trends in main regions. Presented analyses and projections indicate that a global convergence of fertility to around replacement level, envisioned in the UN projections, appears unlikely. Continuing differentiation combined with partial convergence in fertility towards lower levels is suggested as a more plausible scenario, with East Asia (including China) as well as Russia expected to have sustained very low fertility below 1.5 through 2050.

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Section: Fertility Intentionsmentioning

confidence: 92%

Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries

Basten

Sobotka

Zeman

et al. 2014

World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century

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“…Testa's (2007) research suggests that Austrian men and women display not only the lowest ideal family size, but also the lowest desired and intended family size in Europe. Similarly, an earlier analysis of the 2001 round of Eurobarometer data indicated that both ideal and expected family size among men and women in Austria and Germany have fallen to sub-replacement levels (Goldstein et al 2003).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Sub-Replacement Fertility Intentions in Austria

Sobotka¹

2009

Eur J Population

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Combining the data of the 1986-2001 Microcensus surveys, I reconstruct trends in fertility intentions across time and over the life course of Austrian women born since the 1950s. Young adults in Austria expressed fertility intentions that were below the replacement-level threshold as early as in 1986 and women born since the mid-1950s consistently desired fewer than two children on average throughout their reproductive lives. A two-child family norm, however, still clearly dominates the fertility intentions of different age, cohort and education groups. Uncertainty about childbearing intentions is rather common, especially among younger and childless respondents. Different assumptions about reproductive preferences of undecided respondents affect estimates of the mean intended family size. Although Austrians were among the first in Europe to express low fertility intentions, their position is no longer unique. By the early 2000s, young women in a number of other European countries also expressed sub-replacement fertility intentions.

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“…Coleman (1996) discussed the matter in a European perspective. The interest in the topic increased considerably after the findings of Goldstein et al (2003) who showed that the ideal number of children in Europe, albeit on the decline during the last decades, remains considerably higher than actual fertility. These and other authors unanimously agree that if the desired family size, whether measured with the ideal or expected number of children, were fulfilled, fertility would rise considerably to levels close to or around replacement level; hence, the gap reflects the existence of unrealised fertility.…”

Section: From the Fertility Gap To Fertility Intentionsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Fertility Intentions and Outcomes: The Role of Policies to Close the Gap

Philipov

2009

Eur J Population

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The articles in this special issue report about research carried out in a project with the same title as this introductory article (acronym FERTINT). This introduction starts with a brief description of the ''fertility gap''. It outlines its deficiencies when used for policy implications and the advantages of using fertility intentions. It also summarises the broad scope of issues related to intentions as presented in the articles: life-time and short-time fertility intentions and their realisation or frustration, the effect of uncertainty on intentions, the relevance of the theories of planned behaviour and fertility preferences and of social networks for studying couples' and competing intentions.

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The emergence of Sub-Replacement Family Size Ideals in Europe

Cited by 330 publications

References 23 publications

Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries

Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries

Sub-Replacement Fertility Intentions in Austria

Fertility Intentions and Outcomes: The Role of Policies to Close the Gap

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