The Emergency Medicine Physician Workforce: Projections for 2030

Marco, Catherine A.; Courtney, D. Mark; Ling, Louis J.; Salsberg, Edward; Reisdorff, Earl J.; Gallahue, Fiona E.; Suter, Robert E.; Muelleman, Robert L.; Chappell, Bradley; Evans, Dian Dowling; Vafaie, Nathan; Richwine, Chelsea

doi:10.1016/j.annemergmed.2021.05.029

Cited by 56 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Beyond the ACA expansion, we also noted an annual increase in the total number of ED visits of approximately 1%, almost twice the rate of annual population growth. 2 The increasing demand for ED services warrants new and revised treatment protocols and models of care among emergency medicine professionals. Policies that might contain ED use include higher outpatient Medicaid reimbursement rates for behavioral and substance use treatment services and promoting the use of telemedicine.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…1 Emergency department visits are expected to increase even further in the years ahead, by a projected 12% by 2030. 2 , 3 Although EDs treat patients with acute and unexpected health care conditions, they often serve as a safety net for individuals who are unable to access other health care settings. The use of EDs for nonemergent and preventable medical conditions has been a long-standing challenge in the US health care system.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Association of Medicaid Expansion With Emergency Department Visits by Medical Urgency

2022

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Key Points Question Is Medicaid eligibility expansion associated with changes in emergency department (ED) visits based on the medical urgency of the conditions? Findings In this cross-sectional study of 80.6 million ED visits across 4 US states, ED visits per 1000 population decreased for states that expanded Medicaid compared with states that did not. This decrease was associated with decreases in ED visits for less-emergent or nonemergent conditions. Meaning The findings of this study suggest that expanding Medicaid might reduce ED visits for conditions that could be treated in outpatient settings.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Association of Medicaid Expansion With Emergency Department Visits by Medical Urgency

2022

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“…For-profit corporation involvement in emergency medicine (EM) graduate medical education (GME) has been the subject of increased attention and speculation following a workforce study that projected a surplus of nearly 8000 EM physicians by 2030. 1 Some have suggested that the proliferation of residency programs affiliated with for-profit hospitals could be contributing to this oversupply. 2 While both the extent of growth and the intentions of for-profit hospitals in EM GME have been questioned, 2,3 meaningful differences between for-profit and nonprofit hospitals are not always apparent, as some studies have failed to find evidence that nonprofit hospitals are more likely to serve public interests via increased charity care.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Growth of for‐profit involvement in emergency medicine graduate medical education and association between for‐profit affiliation and resident salary

Lassner

Ahn

Singh

et al. 2022

AEM Education and Training

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“…There is also the widely publicized emergency physician workforce study that predicted there will be a surplus of almost 8,000 emergency physicians by the year 2030. 17 We clearly observed a concern from our programs that these factors, coupled with how they were interpreted by and messaged to medical students, may have played a large role in the outcome of the Match this past year. 18 A more recent study questions the conclusion of a physician surplus, identifying that the attrition rate used (3%) was artificially low and led to an overestimation.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Deciphering a Changing Match Environment in Emergency Medicine and Identifying Residency Program Needs

Murano

Weizberg

Burns

et al. 2023

WestJEM

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Introduction: The Match in emergency medicine (EM) is historically competitive for applicants; however, the 2022 residency Match had a large number of unfilled positions. We sought to characterize the impact of and response to the Match on programs and determine programs’ needs for successful recruitment strategies. Methods: We conducted a web-based survey of EM residency program leadership during March–April 2022. Program characteristics were generated from publicly available data, and descriptive statistics were generated. We analyzed free-text responses thematically. Results: There were 133/277 (48%) categorical EM residency programs that responded. Of those, 53.8% (70/130) reported a negative impression of their Match results; 17.7% (23/130) positive; and the remainder neutral (28.5%; 37/130). Three- and four-year programs did not differ in their risk of unfilled status. Hybrid programs had a higher likelihood of going unfilled (odds ratio [OR] 4.52, confidence interval [CI] 1.7- 12.04) vs community (OR 1.62, CI 0.68-3.86) or university programs (0.16, 0.0-0.49). Unfilled programs were geographically concentrated. The quality of applicants was perceived the same as previous years and did not differ between filled and unfilled programs. Respondents worried the expansion of EM residency positions and perceptions of the EM job market were major factors influencing the Match. They expressed interest in introducing changes to the interview process, including caps on applications and interviews, as well as a need for more structural support for programs and the specialty. Conclusion: This survey identifies impacts of the changed match environment on a broad range of programs and identifies specific needs. Future work should be directed toward a deeper understanding of the factors contributing to changes in the specialty and the development of evidence-based interventions.

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The Emergency Medicine Physician Workforce: Projections for 2030

Cited by 56 publications

References 27 publications

Association of Medicaid Expansion With Emergency Department Visits by Medical Urgency

Association of Medicaid Expansion With Emergency Department Visits by Medical Urgency

Growth of for‐profit involvement in emergency medicine graduate medical education and association between for‐profit affiliation and resident salary

Deciphering a Changing Match Environment in Emergency Medicine and Identifying Residency Program Needs

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