39The control of pandemic pathogens depends on early prediction of pandemic variants and, more generally, 40 understanding origins of such variants and factors that drive their global spread. This is especially 41 important for GII.4 norovirus, where vaccines under development offer promise to prevent hundreds of 42 millions of annual gastroenteritis cases. Previous studies have suggested that new GII.4 pandemic viruses 43 evolve from previous pandemic variants through substitutions in the antigenic region of the VP1 protein 44 that enable evasion of host population immunity, leading to global spread. In contrast, we show here that 45 the acquisition of new genetic and antigenic characteristics is not the proximal driver of new pandemics. 46 Instead, pandemic GII.4 viruses circulate undetected for years before causing a new pandemic, during 47 which time they diversify and spread over wide geographical areas. Serological data demonstrate that by 48 2003, some nine years before it emerged as a new pandemic, the ancestral 2012 pandemic strain had 49 already acquired the antigenic characteristics that allowed it to evade prevailing population immunity 50 against the previous 2009 pandemic variant. These results provide strong evidence that viral genetic 51 changes are necessary but not sufficient for GII.4 pandemic spread. Instead, we suggest that it is changes 52 in host population immunity that enable pandemic spread of an antigenically-preadapted GII.4 variant. 53 These results indicate that predicting future GII.4 pandemic variants will require surveillance of currently 54 unsampled reservoir populations. Furthermore, a broadly acting GII.4 vaccine will be critical to prevent 55 future pandemics. 56 57 Significance 58 Norovirus pandemics and their associated public health and economic costs could be prevented by 59 effective vaccines. However, vaccine development and distribution will require identification of the 60 sources and drivers of new pandemics. We here use phylogenetics and serological experiments to develop 61 and test a new hypothesis of pandemic norovirus emergence. We find that pandemic noroviruses pre-62 adapt, diversify and spread worldwide years prior to emergence, strongly indicating that genetic changes 63 are necessary but not sufficient to drive a new pandemic. We instead suggest that changes in population 64 immunity enable pandemic emergence of a pre-adapted low-level variant. These findings indicate that 65 prediction of new pandemics will require surveillance of under-sampled virus reservoirs and that 66 norovirus vaccines will need to elicit broad immunity. 67 68 Parra et al. 2017), as well as other geographically-limited outbreaks caused by epidemic variants 78 (Siebenga et al. 2009; Eden et al. 2014). 79 80 Vaccines currently under development offer promise to mitigate the global economic and health impact 81 of new GII.4 pandemics (Lindesmith et al. 2015). However, effective vaccine design and distribution 82 depend on understanding the sources from which new pandemic var...