The Emerging Risk of Virtual Societal Warfare: Social Manipulation in a Changing Information Environment

Mazarr, Michael J.; Bauer, Ryan Michael; Casey, Abigail; Heintz, Sarah; Matthews, Luke J.

doi:10.7249/rr2714

Cited by 27 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…A recent report from the RAND Corporation (Mazarr et al, 2019) condensed those concerns into a number of future scenarios, described under the umbrella term of the “emerging risk of virtual societal warfare.” Mazarr et al (2019) pointed to associated social trends, such as declining faith in institutions that help to sustain social truths that are generally agreed upon (e.g., the media), weakened measures of social capital (e.g., social trust and civic engagement), increased partisan polarization across many countries, a rise in populist movements and, last but not least, what various scholars (e.g., Specter, 2009, p. 33) have described as a sense of alienation and a loss of agency and ontological security (Giddens, 1991). People’s trust in social institutions, their interpersonal exchanges, the stability and reliability of facts, and even their sense of shared reality are being undermined.…”

Section: Conclusion: From Psychological Science To the Internet For Cmentioning

confidence: 99%

Citizens Versus the Internet: Confronting Digital Challenges With Cognitive Tools

Kozyreva

Lewandowsky

Hertwig

2020

Psychol Sci Public Interest

249

118

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The Internet has evolved into a ubiquitous and indispensable digital environment in which people communicate, seek information, and make decisions. Despite offering various benefits, online environments are also replete with smart, highly adaptive choice architectures designed primarily to maximize commercial interests, capture and sustain users’ attention, monetize user data, and predict and influence future behavior. This online landscape holds multiple negative consequences for society, such as a decline in human autonomy, rising incivility in online conversation, the facilitation of political extremism, and the spread of disinformation. Benevolent choice architects working with regulators may curb the worst excesses of manipulative choice architectures, yet the strategic advantages, resources, and data remain with commercial players. One way to address some of this imbalance is with interventions that empower Internet users to gain some control over their digital environments, in part by boosting their information literacy and their cognitive resistance to manipulation. Our goal is to present a conceptual map of interventions that are based on insights from psychological science. We begin by systematically outlining how online and offline environments differ despite being increasingly inextricable. We then identify four major types of challenges that users encounter in online environments: persuasive and manipulative choice architectures, AI-assisted information architectures, false and misleading information, and distracting environments. Next, we turn to how psychological science can inform interventions to counteract these challenges of the digital world. After distinguishing among three types of behavioral and cognitive interventions—nudges, technocognition, and boosts—we focus on boosts, of which we identify two main groups: (a) those aimed at enhancing people’s agency in their digital environments (e.g., self-nudging, deliberate ignorance) and (b) those aimed at boosting competencies of reasoning and resilience to manipulation (e.g., simple decision aids, inoculation). These cognitive tools are designed to foster the civility of online discourse and protect reason and human autonomy against manipulative choice architectures, attention-grabbing techniques, and the spread of false information.

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Section: Conclusion: From Psychological Science To the Internet For Cmentioning

confidence: 99%

Citizens Versus the Internet: Confronting Digital Challenges With Cognitive Tools

Kozyreva

Lewandowsky

Hertwig

2020

Psychol Sci Public Interest

249

118

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“…French economic setbacks and later the loss of revenue-generating colonies cut the resources available and forced France to make hard choices among forms of military power. 118 Financial weakness was also a huge factor in Austria-Hungary's competitive disadvantage. Wess Mitchell argues that his case proves that "the most dangerous frontier is financial."…”

Section: A Sustainable Financial Foundationmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Societal Foundations of National Competitiveness

2022

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This report offers the results of a yearlong study conducted by the RAND Corporation, funded by the U.S. Department of Defense, to examine the characteristics of highly competitive societies and apply those criteria to the United States. The report explores the relationship between a nation's social condition and its global standing. Does the character of a society bear on its competitive position? Do its essential societal characteristics decisively influence its ability to generate a potent engine of national power, compete for the respect and allegiance of other countries, sustain technological supremacy, and attract the mostskilled immigrants and global capital? Can we identify which societal characteristics contribute most to competitive success? The study sought to throw light on these questions without offering definitive answers. The eventual goal of this line of work is to perform a societal net assessment of the United States and China and derive a sense of how well equipped the United States is for a long-term competition.The research reported here was completed in January 2022 and underwent security review with the sponsor and the Defense Office of Prepublication and Security Review before public release.

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“…124 Examples of disinformation and manipulation, among other things, include distributed audio of private statements and conversations between political or military leaders (both domestically or with allies and adversaries); video of crises or conflict (see below) designed to incite public outrage and prompt pressure for retribution; or audio or video material calibrated to deflect, deceive, or otherwise distract attention from, an actor's culpability of an aggressor by producing false alternative versions of events. 125 As AI technology advances, the quality, cost, and availability of GANs and other toolsespecially AI-enhanced audio software will make it increasingly difficult to discern what is real from what is not, eroding public trust in hitherto trust-worthy information sources. 126 In 2014, for example, thousands of residents at St. Mary Parish in Louisiana received a fake text message alert via a bogus Twitter account warning of a 'toxic fume hazard' in the area.…”

Section: Disinformation Misinformation and Information Manipulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

‘Catalytic nuclear war’ in the age of artificial intelligence & autonomy: Emerging military technology and escalation risk between nuclear-armed states

Johnson

2021

Journal of Strategic Studies

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This article revisits the Cold War-era concept of 'catalytic nuclear war,' considered by many as unworkable, and reconceptualizes it in light of technological change, as well as improved understanding of human psychology and other factors. It argues in the modern digital era, the catalyzing chain of reaction and counter-retaliation dynamics set in motion by the deliberate action of a non-state or third-party actor is fast becoming a more accessible and plausible alternative to acquiring a nuclear weapon or manufacturing an improvised atomic device -or 'dirty bomb.' The article concludes that artificial intelligence (AI) technology is creating newand exacerbating oldescalation pathways that risk catalyzing accidental nuclear confrontation between nuclear-armed powers, particularly under irrational (or sub-rational) conditions. Are existing notions of accidental and inadvertent nuclear escalation still relevant in the age of AI and autonomy?

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The Emerging Risk of Virtual Societal Warfare: Social Manipulation in a Changing Information Environment

Cited by 27 publications

References 34 publications

Citizens Versus the Internet: Confronting Digital Challenges With Cognitive Tools

Citizens Versus the Internet: Confronting Digital Challenges With Cognitive Tools

The Societal Foundations of National Competitiveness

‘Catalytic nuclear war’ in the age of artificial intelligence & autonomy: Emerging military technology and escalation risk between nuclear-armed states

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