The end of cheap oil: Bottom-up economic and geologic modeling of aggregate oil production curves

Jakobsson, Kristofer; Bentley, Roger; Söderbergh, Bengt; Aleklett, K.

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2011.11.073

Cited by 33 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…Partly this can be explained by a large share of OPEC control among the larger fields and the fact that OPEC producers tend to aim for long and stable production profiles rather than rapid return on investment. Second, these patterns can arise from the economically rational behaviour of a price-taking producer who maximizes profit subject to technical and physical constraints [40].…”

Section: (B) Decline Rate Behaviourmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decline and depletion rates of oil production: a comprehensive investigation

Höök

Davidsson

Johansson

et al. 2014

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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Two of the most fundamental concepts in the current debate about future oil supply are oilfield decline rates and depletion rates . These concepts are related, but not identical. This paper clarifies the definitions of these concepts, summarizes the underlying theory and empirically estimates decline and depletion rates for different categories of oilfield. A database of 880 post-peak fields is analysed to determine typical depletion levels, depletion rates and decline rates. This demonstrates that the size of oilfields has a significant influence on decline and depletion rates, with generally high values for small fields and comparatively low values for larger fields. These empirical findings have important implications for oil supply forecasting.

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Section: (B) Decline Rate Behaviourmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decline and depletion rates of oil production: a comprehensive investigation

Höök

Davidsson

Johansson

et al. 2014

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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“…Historically, there has never been a prolonged period in which a fossil resource has increased in production by more than about 7%/year, even with conventional resources [42]. Similar issues have been pointed out previously, with an emphasis on limitations to the economically viable rate of build-up of capital, since investments that are forced to occur too quickly are more expensive [56].…”

Section: System Inertia and Timingmentioning

confidence: 77%

“…There are reasons to doubt the reliability of the optimistic resource estimates [16], but more importantly, the presentation of cumulative availability curves is not equivalent to being able to make a statement about expected prices of oil. Average extraction costs across grades are not equivalent to the marginal cost of barrels being produced at a given time, which should set the market price [56].…”

Section: Finding and Development Costsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ten Reasons to Take Peak Oil Seriously

Brecha

2013

Sustainability

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Forty years ago, the results of modeling, as presented in The Limits to Growth, reinvigorated a discussion about exponentially growing consumption of natural resources, ranging from metals to fossil fuels to atmospheric capacity, and how such consumption could not continue far into the future. Fifteen years earlier, M. King Hubbert had made the projection that petroleum production in the continental United States would likely reach a maximum around 1970, followed by a world production maximum a few decades later. The debate about "peak oil", as it has come to be called, is accompanied by some of the same vociferous denials, myths and ideological polemicizing that have surrounded later representations of The Limits to Growth. In this review, we present several lines of evidence as to why arguments for a near-term peak in world conventional oil production should be taken seriously-both in the sense that there is strong evidence for peak oil and in the sense that being societally unprepared for declining oil production will have serious consequences.

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“…The other school of thought are the "unconcerned" ones who believe that there will be no problem in the availability of oil in future. This difference of opinion between concerned and unconcerned groups is because of a potential lack of common points of reference [39]. However, it is a fact that the production rate of any mineral resource will peak and then decrease till the exhaustion of the economically recoverable reserves.…”

Section: Comparisons Of Hubbert Peak For Forecasting Fossil Fuel Prodmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Future of Sustainable Energy Production in Pakistan: A System Dynamics-Based Approach for Estimating Hubbert Peaks

et al. 2017

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This paper presents an effort pertaining to the simulation of the future production in Pakistan of different primary energy resources, i.e., coal, natural gas and crude oil, thereby constructing Hubbert peaks. In this context, the past 45 years' production data of primary energy resources of Pakistan have been analyzed and simulated using a generic STELLA (Systems Thinking, Experimental Learning Laboratory with Animation) model. The results show that the Hubbert peak of Pakistan's crude oil production has been somehow already achieved in 2013, with the highest production of 4.52 million toe, which is 1.51 times the production in 2000. Similarly, the natural gas peak production is expected in 2024 with a production of 32.70 million toe which shall be 1.96-fold the extraction of the resource in the year 2000. On the other hand, the coal production in the country has been historically very low and with a constant production rate that is gradually picking up, the peak production year for the coal is anticipated to be in the year 2080 with an estimated production of 134.06 million. Based on the results of this study, which provide a greater understanding of future energy patterns, it is recommended that an energy security policy be devised for the country to ensure sustained supplies in the future.

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The end of cheap oil: Bottom-up economic and geologic modeling of aggregate oil production curves

Cited by 33 publications

References 57 publications

Decline and depletion rates of oil production: a comprehensive investigation

Decline and depletion rates of oil production: a comprehensive investigation

Ten Reasons to Take Peak Oil Seriously

The Future of Sustainable Energy Production in Pakistan: A System Dynamics-Based Approach for Estimating Hubbert Peaks

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