The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 study on short-lived climate forcers: introduction and overview

Smith, Steve; Klimont, Zbigniew; Drouet, Laurent; Harmsen, Mathijs; Luderer, Gunnar; Riahi, Keywan; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Weyant, John P.

doi:10.1007/s10584-020-02938-5

Cited by 5 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…The global ESMs could learn from respective model intercomparison efforts within the IAMs [465], [466], [467], [468], which helped substantially in standardizing specific features and reporting structures and thus created higher relevance for policy makers. In this case, IAMs used for the IPCC are one step ahead, by publishing all assumptions and scenario variations for the used shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) [469], [470], [471], [472], [473] and providing a broad scientific literature collection for transparency.…”

Section: Model Intercomparision Studies Of 100% Renewable Energy Syst...mentioning

confidence: 99%

On the History and Future of 100% Renewable Energy Systems Research

et al. 2022

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Research on 100% renewable energy systems is a relatively recent phenomenon. It was initiated in the mid-1970s, catalyzed by skyrocketing oil prices. Since the mid-2000s, it has quickly evolved into a prominent research field encompassing an expansive and growing number of research groups and organizations across the world. The main conclusion of most of these studies is that 100% renewables is feasible worldwide at low cost. Advanced concepts and methods now enable the field to chart realistic as well as cost-or resource-optimized and efficient transition pathways to a future without the use of fossil fuels. Such proposed pathways in turn, have helped spur 100% renewable energy policy targets and actions, leading to more research. In most transition pathways, solar energy and wind power increasingly emerge as the central pillars of a sustainable energy system combined with energy efficiency measures. Costoptimization modeling and greater resource availability tend to lead to higher solar photovoltaic shares, while emphasis on energy supply diversification tends to point to higher wind power contributions. Recent research has focused on the challenges and opportunities regarding grid congestion, energy storage, sector coupling, electrification of transport and industry implying power-to-X and hydrogen-to-X, and the inclusion of natural and technical carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approaches. The result is a holistic vision of the transition towards a net-negative greenhouse gas emissions economy that can limit global warming to 1.5˚C with a clearly defined carbon budget in a sustainable and cost-effective manner based on 100% renewable energy-industry-CDR systems. Initially, the field encountered very strong skepticism. Therefore, this paper also includes a response to major critiques against 100% renewable energy systems, and also discusses the institutional inertia that hampers adoption by the International Energy Agency and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, as well as possible negative connections to community acceptance and energy justice. We conclude by discussing how this emergent research field can further progress to the benefit of society.

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Section: Model Intercomparision Studies Of 100% Renewable Energy Syst...mentioning

confidence: 99%

On the History and Future of 100% Renewable Energy Systems Research

et al. 2022

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“…-GAINS 4.01 scenario data (last access: 12 October 2021): https://gains.iiasa.ac.at/models/ (GAINS Developer Team, 2021b) (IAM resolution, ECLIPSE v6b CLE and MFR, EMF30 resolution with G20 GAINS sectors for NH 3 ) available with a free account (Amann et al, 2011;GAINS Developer Team, 2021a;Klimont et al, 2017;Smith et al, 2020) -FAO scenario data (last access: 21 January 2022): https://www.fao.org/global-perspectives-studies/ food-agriculture-projections-to-2050/en/ (FAO, 2018)…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Finally, we scale each activity's emissions intensity with region-and sector-specific trends from the GAINS 4.01 scenarios (GAINS Developer Team, 2021a; Klimont et al, 2017). Global data and projections from 2000 to 2050 are available for non-agricultural sectors and air pollutant species through the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) study scenario data sets (Smith et al, 2020) that have been updated to GAINS 4.01. However, the EMF study does not include NH 3 , agriculture, or agricultural waste burning.…”

Section: Projecting Emissions Intensitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Others have begun to internalize climate-healtheconomic linkages into optimal policy pathways (Reis et al, 2022), while still using SSP pollution assumptions as baselines. Studies in the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 use the GAINS scenarios more directly, focusing on black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) (Smith et al, 2020) or nonagricultural pollutants through 2050 (Vandyck et al, 2018). Since then, GAINS has been updated with more nuanced regions, sectors, and emissions trends (GAINS Developer Team, 2021a), such as recent SO 2 (Zheng et al, 2018) and black carbon (Kanaya et al, 2020) reductions in China, as well as revised data and SSP-consistent modeling for the waste management sector (Gomez Sanabria et al, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A tool for air pollution scenarios (TAPS v1.0) to enable global, long-term, and flexible study of climate and air quality policies

Atkinson

Eastham²,

Chen³

et al. 2022

Geosci. Model Dev.

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Abstract. Air pollution is a major sustainability challenge – and future anthropogenic precursor and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will greatly affect human well-being. While mitigating climate change can reduce air pollution both directly and indirectly, distinct policy levers can affect these two interconnected sustainability issues across a wide range of scenarios. We help to assess such issues by presenting a public Tool for Air Pollution Scenarios (TAPS) that can flexibly assess pollutant emissions from a variety of climate and air quality actions, through the tool's coupling with socioeconomic modeling of climate change mitigation. In this study, we develop and implement TAPS with three components: recent global and fuel-specific anthropogenic emissions inventories, scenarios of emitting activities to 2100 from the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, and emissions intensity trends based on recent scenario data from the Greenhouse Gas–Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model. An initial application shows that in scenarios with less climate and pollution policy ambition, near-term air quality improvements from existing policies are eclipsed by long-term emissions increases – particularly from industrial processes that combine sharp production growth with less stringent pollution controls in developing regions. Additional climate actions would substantially reduce air pollutant emissions related to fossil fuel (such as sulfur and nitrogen oxides), while further pollution controls would lead to larger reductions for ammonia and organic carbon (OC). Future applications of TAPS could explore diverse regional and global policies that affect these emissions, using pollutant emissions results to drive global atmospheric chemical transport models to study the scenarios' health impacts.

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“…Over the last decade, short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) have received widespread attention in mitigation strategies following conclusive scientific evidence that has established that they are responsible for half of observed global warming. The remaining half is derived from excessive CO 2 emissions (Rogelj et al 2014;Haines et al 2017;Cain et al 2019;Fu et al 2020;Smith et al 2020). Furthermore, multiple scientific studies have demonstrated unequivocally that immediate and significant reductions in highly potent SLCFs such as CH 4 , BC, HFCs, and tropospheric ozone are necessary to keep global warming below 1.5 °C by the end of this century (IPCC 2018;Allen 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Deep near-term mitigation of short-lived climate forcers in Oman: grand challenges and prospects

Charabi

2022

Environ Sci Pollut Res

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Over time, short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) have gradually gained prominence as a rationale in the international global mitigation strategy to preserve temperature below 1.5 °C by the end of this century. Scientists cite the short-term gains in air quality and health co-benefits associated with reducing SLCFs as grounds for raising the pressure on governments to eliminate SLCFs rapidly and aggressively. There is little research on whether deep SLCF mitigation during the next decade is feasible in low-and middle-income nations, particularly the hydrocarbon-based economy. This study estimates current and future emissions of potent SLCFs as methane (CH 4 ) hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in Oman using the basic tier 1 approach of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) greenhouse gases (GHG) inventory Guidelines of 2006. Current and future emission of black carbon (BC) was also quantified using specific emission factors. A total of 38,268 Gg of SLFCs were released into the atmosphere in Oman in 2015, accounting for 38.8% of the country's total GHG emissions, and is expected to rise significantly over the next decade to reach 67,777 Gg by 2030. The analysis reveals that the source of Oman's highly potent SLCF emissions is associated with key and critical economic sectors such as the oil and gas industry, heavy road transportation, residential air conditioning (RAC), and industrial refrigeration. These vital economic sectors impose a "Grand Challenge" on the immediate reduction of SLCFs in Oman and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Accomplishing a rapid, significant reduction in highly potent SLCFs from the three challenging sectors over a 5-to 10-year time period does not appear feasible or realistic in the context of international market mechanisms, socioeconomic factors, and mitigation targets. Achieving a significant reduction in SLCFs for a hydrocarbon-based economy requires a profound economic shift. Creating an effective long-term vision for a post-oil economy over the next two decades provides a sound foundation for implementing economic and societal transformation policies incorporating near-zero-emission measures for the potent SLCFs.

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The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 study on short-lived climate forcers: introduction and overview

Cited by 5 publications

References 22 publications

On the History and Future of 100% Renewable Energy Systems Research

On the History and Future of 100% Renewable Energy Systems Research

A tool for air pollution scenarios (TAPS v1.0) to enable global, long-term, and flexible study of climate and air quality policies

Deep near-term mitigation of short-lived climate forcers in Oman: grand challenges and prospects

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