The escalating global burden of serious health-related suffering: projections to 2060 by world regions, age groups, and health conditions

Abstract

Summary Background Serious life-threatening and life-limiting illnesses place an enormous burden on society and health systems. Understanding how this burden will evolve in the future is essential to inform policies that alleviate suffering and prevent health system weakening. We aimed to project the global burden of serious health-related suffering requiring palliative care until 2060 by world regions, age groups, and health conditions. Methods We projected the future burden of serious health-related suffering as defined by the Lancet Commission on Palliative Care and Pain Relief, by combining WHO mortality projections (2016–60) with estimates of physical and psychological symptom prevalence in 20 conditions most often associated with symptoms requiring palliative care. Projections were described in terms of absolute numbers and proportional change compared with the 2016 baseline data. Results were stratified by World Bank income regions and WHO geographical regions. Findings By 2060, an estimated 48 million people (47% of all deaths globally) will die with serious health-related suffering, which represents an 87% increase from 26 million people in 2016. 83% of these deaths will occur in low-income and middle-income countries. Serious health-related suffering will increase in all regions, with the largest proportional rise in low-income countries (155% increase between 2016 and 2060). Globally, serious health-related suffering will increase most rapidly among people aged 70 years or older (183% increase between 2016 and 2060). In absolute terms, it will be driven by rises in cancer deaths (16 million people, 109% increase between 2016 and 2060). The condition with the highest proportional increase in serious-related suffering will be dementia (6 million people, 264% increase between 2016 and 2060). Interpretation The burden of serious health-related suffering will almost double by 2060, with the fastest increases occurring in low-income countries, among older people, and people with dementia. Immediate global action to integrate palliative care into health systems is an ethical and economic imperative. Funding Research Challenge Fund, Florence Nightingale Faculty of Nursing, Midwifery and Palliative Care, King's College London.

International palliative care research priorities: A systematic review

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Disseminating research findings using a massive online open course for maximising impact and developing recommendations for practice

“…This was similar to recommendations about audit and outcome measures where the consensus group gave this higher priority. Evidence and audit are needed to influence policy and allocation of resources [21] whereas relationships are potentially more important to influence change in daily practice [10]. Even though MOOC participants recognised the need to establish these informal relationships, (REC 6) they placed greater emphasis on developing alliances within and between health care sectors (REC 11).…”

Early Impact of the 2014 World Health Assembly Resolution on Palliative Care: A Qualitative Study Using Semistructured Interviews with Key Experts

“…N umerous sources highlight the importance of developing and integrating palliative care within health care systems, yet the evidence indicates that the supply of palliative care services is still hugely insufficient to meet the needs of the global population. [1][2][3][4][5][6] In January 2014, the World Health Organization (WHO) Executive Board prepared a Resolution calling for action on the limited availability of palliative care in most of the world, the avoidable suffering of millions of people and their families, and the need to create or strengthen health systems that include palliative care as an integral component of treatment. 7 The Resolution WHA67.19-Strengthening of palliative care as a component of comprehensive care throughout the life course-was approved in the 67th World Health Assembly (WHA), which took place in Geneva (Switzerland, May 19-24, 2014), urging Member States and requesting the WHO to carry out key actions to develop palliative care globally.…”